Air Travel: Where will we be at the end of this decade?
We are beginning a new decade with hopes of economic growth and concerns about the fragile state of the air transportation system all bundled up in a basket of cautious optimism.
In a recent USA Today article by by Rick Hampson, he looks ahead for the next ten years with forecasts where we will be in different areas of life and includes airline travel (air mass-transit) in the mix. Interestingly, he does not give general aviation or business aviation a mention for this ten year forecast.
Here is what Rick Hampson says about air travel:
•Chronic delays… again. The year 2020 could end up feeling like 2000, when delays plagued aviation. Delays already are common at the three major New York airports and often cascade across the nation. Looking ahead, there are few advanced plans for new runways or major airports and little hope for quick implementation of the government’s “next generation” air-traffic control system.
•More non-stop destinations. New long-range aircraft — notably the Boeing 787 and the Airbus A350 XWB — will open routes that technically were impossible or commercially unprofitable. Airlines will fly to more medium-size overseas cities such as Osaka or Prague and make more overseas flights from U.S. hubs previously too small to support more than a few, such as Denver, Phoenix, Cleveland and Memphis.
•Space tourism. Outer space could join the list of destinations. Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic promises to start commercial “suborbital” flights as soon as this year from the recently christened Spaceport America in New Mexico. By 2020, travelers with a few hundred thousand dollars to spare probably will be able to book a real flight to outer space.
•The return of the turboprop. Airlines raced to replace unpopular turboprops with regional jets 10 years ago. But the regional jets never made the money some airlines expected, and their small storage bins and low headroom alienated many travelers. A new generation of advanced turboprop models —Bombardier’s Q-400 series, for example — offer a quieter, smoother ride than their predecessors. And their ability to land on shorter runways gives airlines flexibility at congested airports.
So based on the forecast where does that leave those of us in general aviation and business aviation in 10 years?
It is up to us to make our own future; so, let me propose the opportunities that this forecast (if true) presents to our side of air transportation.
With chronic delays, business travelers and high-end travelers (maybe even the regular tourists) will become increasingly frustrated with the inefficiency of the air mass-transit system. These travelers will be begging for solutions and they will find them. They will get back on trains, get in their cars and drive and they will look for other forms of air travel that don’t waste their time. They will look for solutions that are cost-effective and they will value their time more and more in a world that will pick up the pace as information flows faster and change happens at the speed of the internet.
The increase in non-stop international destinations is a bright spot for the airlines. We will be able to travel worldwide more efficiently and those of us who live in large and mid market metro areas will have more options for non-stop flights to the rest of the world. Could it be that the airlines are realizing that the only place they can be efficient is in long haul international flights? When an airliner is in the air for ten hours they can make up for the time lost at the terminal. On a one-hour domestic flight it may not be worth it to even fly on the airlines anymore.
With the return of the turboprop to air mass-transit (it never left in general aviation and in other places around the world), new airports will be opened up to air service. New solutions will serve the underserved markets.I predict that they will not all be mainline carriers or their commuter subsidiaries who have developed a terrible reputation in the small markets.
Nowhere in this list does Mr. Hampson mention the effect of social technology on travel! In the next few years, the market will wake up to the idea that they don’t have to put up with inefficient and anti-social (bad customer service) air travel offered in the air mass-transit system.
The market will realize that they can create their own solutions.
Will those of us who offer private air travel solutions today be ready to meet the market and give them what they want? If we don’t, then someone new will come along and figure it out!
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Opportunity is the fuel of optimism. If the benefits can be communicated and used to educate, to the general public and the target audience, more opportunities will emerge. PR strategies work but cost money. How can the industry (private aviation companies) improve their message first, then get the word out? Trade associations usually do this but maybe their dollars are spent on lobbying….the same approach can be regional in target markets….news/features in local markets….first time to post a message. First day under the new clock.
I believe the next ten years will be a challenging one for the airline industry. For the charter and corporate industry, regulatory and environmental challenges will persist, but I do believe that a slow and steady recovery will take hold in the next 2 years. That said, here are my predictions for 2020….
1.) A looming pilot shortage: A recent poll of many younger pilots showed that a majority of the them would like to exit the business. While those who love to fly (like me) will always be pilots., but the reduced pay rates, long hours and increasing regulation and scrutiny of aviators will simply make many younger people forgo the business for more lucrative pursuits. In addition to this, much of the domestic training has simply dried up in the last two years. One flight school I talked to on the West Coast had over 100 instructors but NO DOMESTIC STUDENTS! What happens when things recover? When we get through the supply of pilots in the workforce, where are the new ones going to come from?
We are also seeing the growth of the UAV field and a recent article showing that the miliatry is training more UAV pilots than actual ones. So we cannot expect to be able to draw significant pilots from the military. Soon, as well, many pilots will be reaching age 65 (staring in 2012). These men and women will be leaving the workforce. If things do not ramp up soon, I DO see a shortage of pilots in the 2013-2018 period.
2.) Increasing security and technology: With each new threat or attack, new levels of security are added to the aircarft and airports. The reactive nature of each new security system has lead to air travel being increasingly invasive and inconvienent in the name of safety. It would be my hope that in the next 10 years, new technology can come about that will streamline the security process, but unless we take a PROACTIVE approach to security, we will spend the next decade simply reacting to every new threat to the point that going to the airport is like walking into a police state. That is not a future I would hope for.
3.) “Green technologies”- With the push for “cap and trade” and carbon offsets ,the aviation industry is under increasing pressure to cut its emissions by as much as 50 percent. We are now seeing the rise of biodesiels and biofuels that can power our aircraft. Such an approach, if done properly could partially offset the rise in oil and gas prices by having another, cleaner source of energy. One great “green” idea would be a bio-degradable anti and de-icing fluid. Though I dont know of any type in development, the invention of such a fluid would be a great breakthrough to what is currently an expensive and environmentally unfriendly product.
4.) LED and OLED cockpit displays- As “glass panels” have become the norm in the general aviation and business aviation industries. The quest is now on to make these displays lighter, brighter and more user friendly. We are seeing the rise of thin, LED displays with touch technology (See the Garmin 6000 series). In the next ten years OLED or (Organic Light Emit Diodes) promise even thinner and lighter displays with enhanced resolution (over 5,000,000 to 1 aspect ratio). Any savings in weight, of course, is of great benefit to any aircraft. Touch screens and Ipod-like screens will increasingly become more common in the cockpit. That technology already exists today, so I would imagine in the next ten years it will become widespread. Such advances will allow pilots to have a level of situational awareness unimagined even 15 years ago.
The next 10 years promises to bring about many changes in our industry. Social media is also radically changing the relationship airlines and companies have with their customers and is directly putting the power directly into the customers hands. It is the companies that adapt quickly over the next 10 years that will survive.