Is there really going to be a pilot shortage?
I was at an advisory board meeting for the Middle Tennessee State University’s Aerospace Department this past week and one of the other members of the board who runs a training facility in South Florida was sitting at my table during the dinner. He made a comment that in just a few years we will see a shortage of pilots based on the fact that he is seeing less new pilot trainees, with the exception of foreign students. He also commented that other major training schools in the country are seeing the same thing.
Throughout the last two decades US trained pilots were in high demand in foreign countries because these countries did not have a developed system of growing their own pilots. Will we wake up one day in an opposite scenario and find ourselves recruiting pilots from other countries to fly our airliners because we don’t have enough candidates to fill the seats?
It is hard to imagine a pilot shortage when so many pilots were put out of work in the last two years.
Later in the week I read an associated press article published in the Chicago Tribune (www.chicagotribune.com/travel/sns-ap-us-ntsb-professionalism,0,3783173.story) about the same subject.
Quoting from the article by Jan Lowy:
There are signs that future airline pilots will be less experienced, less ethical and in short supply, a panel of experts told an aviation safety forum on Tuesday.
While there are more pilots than there are airline jobs today, the reverse is likely to be true as airlines recover from the economic recession and begin hiring again, experts on pilot hiring and screening told the National Transportation Safety Board. The coming shortage may likely fall heaviest on regional airlines, who generally employ less-experienced pilots at lower salaries, they said.
There are about 54,000 pilots working for major airlines, nearly 19,000 regional airline pilots and about 2,500 qualified pilots available for hire in the U.S. today, said aviation consultant Judy Tarver, a former pilot recruiter for American Airlines. She estimated that airlines will need to hire about 42,090 pilots over the next decade, due to retirements and anticipated industry growth.
Panel members said there are far fewer military pilots leaving for jobs with airlines. Fewer college students say they want careers in aviation because they see it as an economic dead end, and airlines are increasingly having to compete with corporations for pilots.
The basic problem is this: Starting pay for entry level jobs in the airline industry is dismally low. You can make more money doing just about anything else with a college degree that doesn’t require you to spend an additional $70,000 – $100,000 in costs to get your pilot ratings on top of the degree.
The reason most of us got into aviation was for the passion of flying and not the money. Most of us who still get into this industry are doing it for the passion. The problem is that there are less young people today passionate about the opportunity to fly an aircraft. Maybe the new has worn off and flying doesn’t have that same magnetism it had in generations past. .
So if it all becomes about the money then the airlines are in trouble.
The consumer wants cheap airfares and convenient flights and they also want safe aircraft and great service. So to give them what they want the airlines beat down the costs and that includes the pay scales of all who keep the airline going – not just the pilots but everyone. So you get a pilot making starting pay of $16,000 per year! If you translate that into a 40 hour work week it comes up to $7.69 per hour. About what you make starting in fast food. It is hard to get anyone excited about a career in aviation with that kind of money.
You would like to say the airlines are raking in the big bucks at the expense of labor but the earnings of the airlines don’t reflect it.
I am not sure what the solution is, but things continuing as they are will not result in any solution, so it will be interesting to see what happens. Maybe we just outsource flying jobs like we have done with other jobs in this country. I hope not!
29 Responses
to “Is there really going to be a pilot shortage?”
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- May 24, 2010: Rachel Charlize
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- May 25, 2010: PilotSIMBrokers.com
- May 25, 2010: CFM Charter
- Jun 11, 2010: Jon Anne Doty
- Jun 14, 2010: Chris Findley
I have talked about the looming “pilot shortage” at length in my blog. I believe this time, a looming shortage of qualified pilots may be real in a few years. I, myself, have seen at least 4 major flight schools fold just in the Central, FL area in just the past 3 years. A combination of increasing costs, decreasing availability of credit and a lack of domestic students who can truly afford flight training, threatens to “dry up from below” the pool of available pilots. At the same time the number of registered pilots has continued to shrink in the last 20 years despite the best efforts of the industry.
While its hard to see that future with so many pilots (including myself) struggling to find work, when business picks up (and there is some evidence this is happening) there are simply not going to be enough new pilots to fill the seats. I have talked to many many young people about careers in aviation and there is a rapidly growing impression that an aviation career has no future. Its hard to tell a young person that they will spend 100k on their training to make 16k their first year. This impression MUST be countered!!
Obviously increasing salaries for pilots is just one of the answers, but I believe there are generational differences too. The new generation of future pilots may not want to “pay their dues” to get ahead in their career. This can be especially true when there are far more lucrative careers that one can pursue right out of school. In addition, younger people want more of a work/life balance and all pilots know how difficult that can be for many years in the carrer. So we must not only grant a living wage but also offer pilots a good “QOL” (quality of life.)
I believe that outsourcing may be difficult due to immigration and regulatory reforms. More likely will be increasing use of technology to evenually have single pilot cockpits or perhaps even automated aircraft (in the far future), though I do not know if the public would approve of either in airliners.
One thing is sure, experienced, professional pilots will ALWAYS be in demand. It is imperative that we pass our experience and professionalism to the next generation to avoid the “less experiened” and especilly “less ethical” pilots of the future.
If pilots would fly for free…just for the passion and love of it…then let them!
In Ideavirus, Seth Godin gives several examples of HIGHLY successful companies that gave away so much of their product, that the their target audience was ravenously hungry when the “for sale” product finally hit the market. Sales AND profits soared!
Can charter aviation do the same?
Could you possibly share the link from the Chicago Tribune about Pilot shortages?
I clicked on the link you gave, and well, there was no article. I then went to the Associated press and typed in “Pilot Shortage” and the only articles I could find were from the 1980’s. I tried to refine my search with no luck. Thanks!
Well, Fred, you’re right. It looks like the article has moved. You can find it here, as well: http://www.abag.org.br/documents/NTSB-PilotosdoFuturo.pdf Thanks for letting us know that the link was broken.
Don”t be an ASS
Some of us work hard at this.
Jeff: I have the utmost respect for pilots,having grown up with a father who has been flying for 54 years and being a pilot myself. The intention of this post is to highlight that this is a serious problem and something needs to be done about the dismal pay scales in the industry. The comment about outsourcing is with a hint of sarcasm. That would be a disaster in reality
Allen
I have been a pilot since 1976. I have been hearing of the future pilot shortage since 1976. NEWSFLASH…. when someone mentions “pilot shortage” note who is saying it. It will be someone who has a financial stake in you “believing” there will be a future pilot shortage.
I have been a pilot for a major carrier for 12 years and did 11 years in the military prior to that. I got into aviation initially because of passion, with the understanding that I could live my passion and get paid very very well and have amazing quality of life. I don’t know anyone that got into professional aviation for passion alone. Flying is a passion. Professional aviation is an occupation. That being said, I am extremely disappointed by how my career turned out. If I knew in advance it would be this, I would have never gotten involved. I would have found a way to make enough money to fly privately, which is way more fun. This career has been a disaster. Quality of life is terrible and the compensation hugely below what we bring to the table and not worth the sacrifice I and my family have to make.
Professional aviation recruitment, in my experience, came from the people who do it. I remember hearing things like, “it’s the best job in the world!” These days I don’t know ANYONE that does this that would recommend it to a young person…truly! I do not know one professional pilot that would recommend this, or put his own money toward it for their child. Word is out! I have my eye on the door at all times. If I could find a way out right now I would go in a heartbeat. This is the attitude of the men and women who fly you and your family around. This is the attitude of the people you trust are being cared for and compensated by the corporations they work for…and they want more from us. Well, get used to it. They have been crapping on us for years and most of us can’t wait to get out. Is there a pilot shortage looming? You bet! It’s going to come fast and furious and it’s going to be a mess. The experience level and integrity of what’s coming up is one problem. The other is, the people you are relying on to train them are going to get out in droves. I know I going ASAP.
Why is anyone shocked by this? Pilots have lost BIG in the past 10-20 years. Not just out of pocked but in general respect from the public
As a regional airline pilot I blame many major “mainline” pilots for dropping the ball. The funniest part is they blame younger guys like me who fly at regional airlines. Perhaps, if you put aside your ego and put the new guys under your “wing” when they walked in the door they wouldnt be “taking your jobs”. YOU have the money YOU have the power but you’re just too good and way better then your younger brothers, hence you got your own Union.
Management abuse at regional airlines in terms of benefits and pay are standard practice because they see the younger pilot group as transient and a trade off of, “I’ll give you the experience and you’ll give me the cheap labor” Unfortunatley the right seat of this RJ is starting to hurt my ass because I’ve been sitting in it too long. Let’s get this line moving, thanks for retiring Sully.
Why would anyone go to a school like ERAU spend $150,000 on a flying education to make burger flippin’ pay? Why do consumers talk about safe travel but their wallet says,”Greyhound” airfare? Because they are convinced that the Fed’s got em’ covered. They will say, “but the FAA has mandates and guidlines and ALL airlines meet them right? I’m perfectly safe up here, right?.” Well Colgan in Buffalo proved them otherwise. Pay professional wages and attract professionals or pay with your life.
Yep, me too.
Aviation is for fools!
Having founded “Pilot Careers Initiative” I have been working closely with Professional educators, universities, and airline executives for the past 2 years. We have seen less young people with an interest in the career as well as spiraling cost of training and a loss of financial aid opportunities. We are currently working create an awareness among the majors and, to that end, I am researching the pilot production capabilities of major academies and colleges in the near future. On major academy with an annual capacity of 450, currently has 350 of which only 9 are American. Another major academy claims to like numbers.
Im a pilot and a business analyst specializing in of all things outsourcing… like it or not it is coming. As airlines look to make profits, outsourcing it’s pilots is high on the list. I am aware of many studies that list outsourcing of pilots as a viable option. New pilots, I read that the average salary is between 8 and 9 bucks an hour, not good for American youth, but just imagine for a moment what that same money means to someone from Egypt, or Columbia… That’s right They would be rich. I attended an aviation event and found that if it wasn’t for the foreign students, many of the schools would close… We demand cheap cars, clothes, fast food, cheap flights but do not want to pay for it… It is a shame… I am glad i am not a professional pilot, fasten your seat belts, adjust flaps were going in…
This is a real problem world wide. New pilots and the only ones training are from India ,China, and Africa. 9 bucks an hour. it is a life line to anyone from these places. My kids will become gardeners before pilots!
Well, job boards like:
http://www.willflyforfood.com/pilot-jobs/
show there´s a shortage of pilots. Of overly qualified pilots with 3000 hours flight time and 500 PIC
of turbojets. The question then is why ? I say it´s because the qualifications are very expensive, and
there´s lots of sacrifice involved to get there. As someone in my airport used to say:
First you pay to fly. Then you fly for free. And then you start to be paid to fly(which
in the beginning, is very little).
Only a very small percentage of the population would be willing to make the necessary sacrifice in
time, money, and life style, to get the necessary qualifications that will land you at
a 747 making 200k/year in China. What we will see is governments like the Chinese subsiding aviation
training for prospecting pilots, while people who have to rely on their own will be more and more put
off by the career. On the other hand, those who do go through all the sacrifice may eventually
find the golden pot in the horizon.
After being laid off from Evergreen Air then being a freight hauler flying junk it got bad. Now I would like to return to flying but it is hard to leave a 95k year job to go down to 35k. 35k top of the pay scale on dc-9 right seat. I wont fly junk anymore and I wont fly pistons at night over the rockies. So when the pay comes up to a normal amount to live on and the offer is not dagerous I will come back.
This is scarey. I was about to talk my daughter into becoming a pilot. Now I am wondering if I even want to step foot on a plane with the attitudes from some of the pilots. Maybe they might freak out and decide to commit suicide and take whoever is aboard out with them on any given flight. I didn’t ever think things were like that… maybe I should tell her to stay being a waitress for three dollars an hour. Even though some days she only averages about 5 or 6, at least I know she’s safe.
Quote: “He made a comment that in just a few years we will see a shortage of pilots based on the fact that he is seeing less new pilot trainees,…..”
This article was written a year and a half prior to MY post. We’re a year and a half into this author’s prediction of a pilot shortage “in just a few years”. It ain’t happening!!! It hasn’t happened, (in the post-Viet nam era). It’s not going to happen!
THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF PILOTS in the United States. There WILL BE NO SHORTAGE OF PILOTS in the United States.
I fly for a small corporate flight department. We recently had an opening in our King Air. We received over 1000 resume’s for that 1 job. THERE IS NO PILOT SHORTAGE. There won’t be a pilot shortage.
Kids,……get your Engineering, Accounting, or Nursing degree. THAT is where the “shortages” will be. You’ll make enough money to either (a) fly in the BACK of the airplane whenever you want, or (b) fly your OWN airplane,….whenever you want.
Captain Kirk: “New pilots, I read that the average salary is between 8 and 9 bucks an hour, not good for American youth, but just imagine for a moment what that same money means to someone from Egypt, or Columbia… That’s right They would be rich.”
Dear Kirk,
Forget it. I work for one of the biggest players in the ME airline business and guess what, we do have the pilots from the above mentioned places. They work for a lot more than your average pilot in the US flies for and tax free too with well above average T&C. 8 – 9 bucks per hour, you make me laugh. I am sorry to disappoint you, Captain Kirk.
I am a pilot for a Major Airline. I am an Airbus Captain. I have been flying jet for 31 years. Twenty four at the Airline and 7 flying with the USMC.
What has happened in the last 20 years is a travesty. Pay cuts of 50%. Lost pensions. Pilots who have retired 10 years ago are making more on the pensions than I make working full time.
I would never recommend Aviation as a career, unless you are the CEO.
I do agree.Been fluing 16 years and live in South Africa.Since i was small (now 38) i’ve been hearing “PILOT SHORTAGE”.If that is truly the case,why don’t the airlines take what they can get and brace for “THE SHORTAGE”.When you look at the hiring requirements they want at least 2000 hrs plus 500 jet and the rating of the plane at least for what you apply for???,and still give age restrictions and experience commensurate with age and only nationals need apply?? MMMMMM,doesn’t sound like they are very worried.And i have personally been witness to HEAPS of cv’s lying on desks and inboxes full of cv’s that get discadred.This is just a very clever business trick of the larger airline financial community,they create an apparent void,like thay have for the past 20 od years so that supply will be higher than demand and tharefore keep pilot salaries low.How can a airline pay peanuts but buy 50 737-800 aircraft,if the future was so dire,why do they order the aircraft that they are not sure they can operate.It would make better sense if the majors all open flying schools to train the said needed pilots and be able to train them specifically for themselves according to their standards and not have a shortage that bring the company to a standstill?We will be hearing “PILOT SHORTAGE”for many years to come and the situation will still be the same as now.And finaly,yes,look at who says “PILOT SHORTAGE”,it’s either a flying school or a big airline,you don’t hear emirates walking around in the streets and giving out pamphlets to join the airline.Neither do they walk around like the army recruiters in parking lots and try to persuade you with sweetcakes and promises to join them.WAKE UP PEOPLE,this is a big load of junk.Go for a career with real opportunities and not with all the pain and low pay pilots have to deal with.I see my family 2 months out of 12 per year,children grow up,you and your partner grow apart,you get older and will likely die alone and would not have a memory full of rich memories but rather empty and alone and if you are lucky a bit of a pension…….and that can’t buy your lost life back.Think about for a minute……
Do any of us really believe there is a pilot shortage ? It’s hard to see when every pilot friend of mine has a job and isn’t even looking for one. Sure, we want a better company but who says that one is better. I’ve been flying for the Air Force Reserves for 28 years and the airlines for 18 years and still don’t see a shortage. Maybe if you want to go live overseas and work for crap wages there’s a shortage. When a family member asked me how to become a pilot, I said spend your money on anything but aviation. I have been furloughed six times and worked for six airlines. Family life, what’s that. Wife, box checked a couple of times. It goes on and on. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve travelled the entire globe numerious time. Seen great places and some not so great countries. Would I recommend it to anyone who doesn’t have a weathly family to pay for all the cost, that would be no !!. Commuter pilots get screwed on pay and work rules. Major airlines have taken hugh pay cuts. Become a lawyer, then a politician. That seems be worth the way to go. You can use the law for your personal gain then become a congressman and make your own laws. If you younger then 30 and are thinking about becominng a professional pilot, STOP, and do something different. I hope there will be a pilot shortage in the USA. Then maybe pilots will get the respect they deserve. Sorry if I am sounding negitive but it just been frustrating in this business and I still have 14 years to go.
10 yrs Navy, 15 yrs w my airline and I agree w my fellow major airline bretheren: wished I’d gone to Med , Law, or MBA school instead. There is a. thin line of pilot civility and professionalism holding the US air travel system together and it won’t take much to see it crumble. I’d be gone tomorrow if not for my responsibility to my family.
In a cruel twist of ironic fate, if you read Sullenberger’s book (Highest Calling), you learn that near disaster was the best thing that could have happened to him. The well deserved fame it brought him probably was the only thing that saved him from complete financial ruin.