Plane Conversations

There is a war brewing within the online travel agency space over Google’s recent move with Google Flights and Google Hotels.

Google began positioning its new flight-finding feature at the top of general search results for airline booking information earlier this month. And its new competitors in the $110 billion online travel industry aren’t happy about the search giant crashing the party, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report.

Chasing The Market To The Bottom

Travel is hot for 2012 and beyond.  An increasing number of people say they’ll do more leisure traveling in the coming year, and even more say they’ll fly if they can find good deals in 2012. Good deals are going to be hard to find. The airlines attempted to raise prices 22 times in 2011 (and nine of those attempts were successful).

Business travel spend is expected to have grown 6.9% in 2011 compared to 2010, hitting $250.2 billion.  The forecast for 2012 is 4.3% growth in business travel spend for 2012 (or $260.9 billion).

While revenue growth in the travel sector looks promising the user experience continues to decline. Flying today is like traveling by bus with few frills and even fewer fun times.  Consider some of the recent headlines:

1. Airline Technology Leading to Customer Alienation
2. Airlines Score Lowest In Customer Satisfaction
3. 92% of Executive Unhappy With Business Travel Experiences
4. Airline Delays, Cancellations and Complaints Rise

I could go on with an endless list but by now the picture should be obvious. Current market dynamics within air travel services is propelling a race to the bottom and Google knows this.  In other words air travel suppliers have boxed themselves into competing on price and thus air travel services have become a commodity. The meaning of the term commodity is used to describe a service for which there is demand, but which is supplied without qualitative differentiation across a market.

Google knows that search has the greatest influence over consumer choices for travel services. 93% of people who seek information on travel services use search. Consumers seek ratings and reviews, news articles, word of mouth and blog post which in the end influences their decisions. When there is little differential in a market then price becomes the initial decision factor followed by “social influences”, i.e. quality of the experience.

As a result, the present online travel bazaar is very competitive and the margins are shrinking . The  tight competition led the market to compete on price rather than experience. Google recognizes this and simply stepped in and made the shopping experience better. Google doesn’t care about the price of air service they care about providing the price to consumers seamlessly.

As fortunes are made by leveraging technology to become ever more efficient, there is yet far greater wealth to be had by unleashing the discovery of new experiences and creation of new opportunities. That is exactly why we created Social Flights. We are changing the direction of the race to the top.

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There is a war brewing within the on-line travel agency space over Google’s recent move with Google Flights and Google Hotels.

Google began positioning its new flight-finding feature at the top of general search results for airline booking information earlier this month. And its new competitors in the $110 billion online travel industry aren’t happy about the search giant crashing the party, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report.

Chasing The Market To The Bottom

Travel is hot for 2012 and beyond.  An increasing number of people say they’ll do more leisure traveling in the coming year, and even more say they’ll fly if they can find good deals in 2012. Good deals are going to be hard to find. The airlines attempted to raise prices 22 times in 2011 (and nine of those attempts were successful).

Business travel spend is expected to have grown 6.9% in 2011 compared to 2010, hitting $250.2 billion.  The forecast for 2012 is 4.3% growth in business travel spend for 2012 (or $260.9 billion).

While revenue growth in the travel sector looks promising the user experience continues to decline. Flying today is like traveling by bus with few frills and even fewer fun times.  Consider some of the recent headlines:

1. Airline Technology Leading to Customer Alienation
2. Airlines Score Lowest In Customer Satisfaction
3. 92% of Executive Unhappy With Business Travel Experiences

I could go on with an endless list but by now the picture should be obvious. Current market dynamics within air travel services is propelling a race to the bottom and Google knows this.  In other words air travel suppliers have boxed themselves into competing on price and thus air travel services have become a commodity. The meaning of the term commodity is used to describe a service for which there is demand, but which is supplied without qualitative differentiation across a market.

Google knows that search has the greatest influence over consumer choices for travel services. 93% of people who seek information on travel services use search. Consumers seek ratings and reviews, news articles, word of mouth and blog post which in the end influences their decisions. When there is little differential in a market then price becomes the initial decision factor followed by “social influences”, i.e. quality of the experience.

As a result, the present online travel bazaar is very competitive and the margins are shrinking . The  tight competition led the market to compete on price rather than experience. Google recognizes this and simply stepped in and made the shopping experience better. Google doesn’t care about the price of air service they care about providing the price to consumers seamlessly.

As fortunes are made by leveraging technology to become ever more efficient, there is yet far greater wealth to be had by unleashing the discovery of new experiences and creation of new opportunities. That is exactly why we created Social Flights.

Airlines are taking a beating from on-line conversations.

In yesterday’s article titled “Four Strategic Social Experiences” we illustrated, using a word cloud, what a consumer might find if they were searching for shared experiences about a particular airline. Not good.

A new report from PhoCusWright finds that “Flyers are essentially giving airlines a grade of C+, which is barely above satisfactory,” said Carroll Rheem, director of research for PhoCusWright. “But even more concerning for airlines is that their most valuable customers — business travelers and those with higher annual household incomes — are even less happy than the average.” Airlines are stuck in a spiral to the bottom.  They all compete on price and subsequently as margins get squeezed so does service.

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The beginning of online travel created new business models that changed the dynamics and relationships with buyers.  Now with the advent of social technology the dynamics are changing again.

instead of the traditional travel site being the brand the brand has become the traveler.

As a result, the present online travel bazaar has become a race to become more social. Technology and savvy buyers have dramatically changed online travel over the past two years. The app market, for instance, has swelled from virtually nothing to billions of dollars in just a few years, and smartphone owners love their access to a gaggle of Wi-Fi finders, flight status updaters, local restaurant finders, budget booking assistants, translators and more.

Websites offering unique travel-oriented services have made a strong showing, too. They include Wanderfly, a personalized travel recommendation travel engine à la Hunch and Pandora; and GTrot, a site that allows travelers to share their itineraries with friends and get travel advice within their networks.

Applications like these will continue to grow, improving the efficiency of the overall industry by improving the connectivity of air travel information between flights and friends.

Chasing the Lowest Common Denominator

While on-line applications enable travelers to connect and collaborate, few if any do anything to improve the travel experience. Commercial airline travel experiences are abysmal and getting worse. While the efficiency of commercial air travel for consumers and businesses has diminished could there be a better alternative emerging?

Social technology will not enhance the value of on-line travel sites enough to improve pricing.  Social technology has become a “must be” rather than a differentiator and it, by itself, doesn’t change the lowest common denominator, price.  Finding “best” prices has become easy given the power of search and the recent introduction of Google Flights.  Finding the best experience and the highest value has become difficult but may change soon.

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An airplane moves people and connects them with other people and things.

The internet connects people and moves things.

Airplane operators know that using aircraft can be an expensive proposition. Use of the internet is free. If you combined something expensive with something free what happens?

Do Private Jet Operators Understand The Implications?

There has been a saying in the private jet business: If you have to ask the price, you can’t afford it. People who use private jets generally haven’t hunted for the best prices because it’s a status thing. These two statements used to be foundational truths in the private aviation business. But things are changing.

There are a finite number of wealthy people and/or corporations who desire to own or use a private jet regardless of the cost. Most charter operators have chased all the wealthy people for a sale so operators end up chasing the same customer over and over. Even the wealthy are feeling the economic pitch and shareholders are questioning the cost of and need for private aircraft.  Now charter operators are being pressured to justify and lower their cost. Cost has become transparent thanks to the internet.  Yet most operators do not fully understand the implications of transparency and social technology on old business models and methods.

What Are The Implications?

Business travelers and affluent individuals are becoming disenchanted with commercial flights, crowded airports, flight delays, and inconvenient schedules. These travelers are looking for alternatives to save time and reduce the hassles of commercial air travel. So they go to the internet to examine private aviation alternatives. What do they find and see?  At most, Web.1.0!

When you do a search for “private jets” or “private aviation” what comes up on the first page are listings of jet brokers (those that don’t operate or own any jets). You also see lots of references to “cost per hour, fractional jets and a host of other terms that are foreign to buyers”.

So let’s say someone decides to click on any of the links. They end up on a static web page with pretty pictures of expensive jets and self- proclaimed accolades of how great this company is then an 800 number to call for a quote.

So if someone looking for an alternative to commercial air travel hasn’t already lost interest in their search then the next step is to actually make a call. Then someone answers the call and begins asking questions to the caller of which the caller has no idea what they are talking about. Not wanting to sound stupid the caller fakes their way through the dialog expecting to get a quote at the end of the call. Instead the broker/operator says “can I have your email or number so I can get back to you?”

If the buyer agrees it then takes the broker/operator at least half a dozen phone calls, faxes, or emails, before you can get a charter estimate which may or may not be correct. Then the operator/broker emails you the quote of which has so many disclaimers and its format doesn’t make any sense to the buyer. All this, and you have not boarded the plane yet.   Besides that all he buyer wanted to know is what is my seat cost and what I get for it.

By now operators are reading this saying “You don’t understand our business model, we don’t sell seats we sell jets”.  To which I would say “I know but every jet has a certain number of seats and the total cost is represented by a cost per seat, full or not.”

Broken Business Models

According to a Forrester’s recent report, there are about 53.8 Million socially engaged eBusiness travelers in the United States alone. A new market opportunity for private aviation. It’s all about the passenger – they have the money.

Certainly not all 53.8 million business travelers would consider private aviation as an alternative travel option. But let’s say 1% would which means 53,000 potentially new customers.

The private aviation industry couldn’t imagine having 53 thousand new customers because their mindsets are frozen in old business models and expensive archaic operating processes.  Today’s charter revenues barely cover the aircraft management and operational costs, and almost never reach levels necessary to cover an aircraft’s cost of ownership. At the same time in the charter world an aircraft flies empty 40% to 60% of the time.  What a waste!

It is time for a revolution in innovative private aviation business models if the industry wants to capture the significant growth opportunity fueled by demand from disgruntled business travelers looking for viable alternatives.

Old mindsets are saying “You don’t understand how we operate”. My response is “You don’t understand how to change the way you operate”.

-Ralph Waldo Emerson “Who you are speaks so loudly I can’t hear what you‘re saying.”

Stay tuned for “What Would Jet 3.0 Look Like?”

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When commercial airlines do not optimize seat sales they loose money. Historically airlines have looked for “lanes” that have high demand thus insuring increased sales of seat capacity. Now they are using social media to fill seats.

Some airlines say that social-media outlets, such as Twitter and Facebook, are beginning to disrupt the traditional sales cycle. Some airlines are sending sales out directly to customers at all hours, making pricing far less predictable each day.

Social-media sales of  airline seats has just begun and it will change the way airlines have traditionally sold seats. After all empty seats represent leaving revenue in the air.

What About Private Jet Charters?

Private jet charter operators seek buyers who will pay for the entire plane regardless of how many seats are full. Those who charter jets pay the round trip cost of a jet whether they use it round trip or not.  The process creates what is known as “empty legs”. Empty legs are usually one way trips flying empty and yet already paid for by somebody.  Most Private operators try and sell the empty leg at full charter prices and thus few ever sell an empty leg.  Empty legs represent seats unused leaving revenue in the air.

A recent New York Times Article titled “Fly a Private Jet at Public Prices” states “The dirty little secret of the industry is, about a third of our flights are empty,” said Alex Wilcox, chief executive of JetSuite, based in Southern California, which recently began posting last-minute $499 deals on Facebook for empty legs on the company’s four-passenger Embraer Phenom aircraft. “Say a Gulfstream pulls into San Francisco and is going back to Vegas empty,” he said. “A few years ago, if you were to say, ‘if I give you $500 will you take me and my family?’ you would get laughed at.” But the recession changed such attitudes, Mr. Wilcox said. Now, he said, more companies are saying, “Sure, it’ll help pay for the gas.”

Revenue Is Revenue to Some

Allen Howell, CEO of Corporate Flight Management, looks at empty legs as an opportunity to expand his market of consumers and gain incremental revenue. Allen Howell says ” If I have a plane flying empty from one city to another I am a fool if I don’t open the seats on that leg to paying customers.”  ”Think about it, the value we create by selling the seats on empty legs is five fold:”

1. We increase the potential of building relations with future charter prospects
2. We provide consumers with an experience that exceeds all expectations
3. We create incremental revenue streams that go right to bottom line profits
4. We increase and expand our circles of influence by leveraging the power of social media
5. We begin to create repeat customers that are common to travel circles we service

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Alfie Kohn, author of  No Contest:The Case Against Competition writes:

Noncooperative approaches . . . almost always involve duplication of effort, since someone working independently must spend time and skills on problems that already have been encountered and overcome by someone else.

Sound familiar?  Look around and in almost every industry you see competitors beating each other into the ground while reducing the end value to the customer and increasing cost.

Julie Browser, of IBM writes “The traditional concept of business as a “winner takes all” contest is giving way to a realization that in the networked economy, companies must both co-operate and compete. Termed “co-opetition,” this new perspective requires companies to create business strategies that capitalize on relationships in order to create maximum value in the marketplace.

“Co-opetition”– a model in which a network of stakeholders co-operate and compete to create maximum value — is one of the most important business perspectives of recent years. Internet and mobile technologies have made it even more necessary for companies to both co-operate and compete, by enabling relationships through information sharing as well as integrating and streamlining processes.

In today’s networked economy, co-opetition is a powerful means of identifying new market opportunities and developing business strategy.

Take the private aviation industry.  Everyday thousands of private jets fly empty. Those who charter jets pay the round trip cost of a jet whether they use it round trip or not.  The process creates what is known as “empty legs”. Empty legs are usually one way trips flying empty and yet already paid for by somebody.  Most Private operators try and sell the empty leg at full charter prices and thus few ever sell an empty leg.  Empty legs represent seats unused leaving revenue in the air.

What if these private jet operators shared all their empty legs with the public and sold seats on those legs?  By cooperating they would expand their markets, create value for consumers and generate more revenue.  But many won’t do that because they view themselves as competing with each other rather than cooperating.  In the meantime revenue is lost to the air. In this case they end up doing less alone rather than more together.

Business is both competition and co-operation

In the past, people saw business as a “winner takes all” or “zero-sum” game. The networked economy moves away from these purely competitive plays to recognize cooperative relationships that leverage value created by those in the network. Competition — the other aspect of co-opetition — occurs after businesses have created new value in the market and expand the value proposition through quality and creativity.

Social Flights business model is about creating cooperation with private jet operators with the aim of expanding the market and creating new value for all parties involved. For it to work the suppliers must cooperate in order to gain increased market share through new value offered to travelers who in turn create new revenue.

So, will you consider cooperating?

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Every time someone posts something online the context of their content reveals an intent. Intentions have become transparent and discernment of intent is becoming the wisdom of crowds.

The aggregation of consumer conversations enabled by technology has fueled awareness of market methods and intents. Consumers have found influence and have begun to “opt out” of the old methods created by old market methods of intent to capture and sell.

Social technology has created a transparency of intent. Intent is a relational attribute that reveals motive. The “markets of conversations” are no longer motivated by old methods used by the markets over the last 40 years. Doc Searls says “The Intention Economy is built around more than transactions. Conversations matter. So do relationships. So do reputation, authority and respect. Those virtues, however, are earned by sellers (as well as buyers) and not just “branded” by sellers on the minds of buyers like the symbols of ranchers burned on the hides of cattle.”

A Brands Letter of Intent

A letter of intent or LOI is a document outlining an agreement between two or more parties before the agreement is finalized. Such agreements may be for employment, acquisitions, mergers, purchases of services or products. Agreements which aim to specify the intents of parties engaged in a relationship for specific purposes.

The purposes of a LOI may be:

• to clarify the key points of a complex or simple transaction for the convenience of the parties
• to declare officially that the parties are now engaged with an intent implied or specifically spelled out
• to offer safeguards for when the relationship collapses during an engagement with intent

A LOI may also be referred to as a memorandum of understanding (MOU), term sheet or discussion sheet. The different terms show different styles, but do not show any difference under law. Social letters of intent exist when and where buyers and sellers engage on-line through the exchange of information and later a transaction which has certain expectations of delivery.

Social Agreements Represent LOI’s

When people engage with other people or entire organizations on-line there is an implied social agreement represented within the communications. The social agreement may be in response to an inquiry, a comment on posted content or an intent to investigate or take action from an ad or marketing message. The social agreement may also simply be a response to a need or an exchange of communications centric to topical discussions.

Given the reach of social technology and the engagement of markets, buyers and sellers, the underlying social agreement is similar to the traditional letter of intent. While social agreements are not legal instruments the expectations of fulfillment by both parties remain the same as if they were legally agreements.

The very nature of social technology and the emerging dynamics are raising people’s expectation to fulfill implied intents contained in context with the content (communications). It is clear that traditional marketing and advertising methods are being rejected because the intent of such methods are not what buyers expect. Today’s buyers expect honesty, integrity, responsiveness, performance and respect for their time, attention and intentions.

Cluttering buyers time, attention and relevant intentions with irrelevant ads and slick marketing messages does not show respect. Treating buyers like cattle waiting to be herded does not show respect. The currency of communications represents the value of ones intent to fulfill or fail to fulfill the intent of a social agreement. Failure to fulfill a social agreement means the buyers currency, both in the form of money and communications, will not follow you rather both will be spent and shared elsewhere.

Social letters of intent are not created by or from the supplier rather from the buyer. To ignore or not fulfill these intents means you lose the buyers currency and that of their “friends”. That represents a return, or lack thereof, from this thing called social media.

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Suppliers push products and services to market. People represent the pull for products and services through demand.

In economics, supply and demand describe market relations between prospective sellers and buyers of goods and services. The supply and demand model determines price and quantity sold in the market. The model is fundamental in macroeconomic analysis of buyers and sellers and of their interactions in a market.

Suppliers, manufacturers, service providers and distributors that have realized efficiencies in their supply chains – but that have struggled to gain similar returns from classic customer relationship management (CRM) solutions – are now increasingly embracing demand chain management (DCM) technologies to cut costs and optimize sales processes.

Demand Chain Management is the management of upstream and downstream relationships between suppliers and customers to deliver the best value to the customer at the least cost to the demand chain as a whole. The term demand chain management is used to denote the concept commonly called supply chain management, however with special regard to the customer pull.

The more widespread adoption of social technologies, combined with the challenging sales environment stemming from the conversational rivers enabled by the social web will cause selling organizations to heighten their focus on the demand side of the value chain.

What is The Demand?

Fundamentally the social web has enabled people to have a voice about anything and everything. When the lowest expectations about a product or service are not met the conversations swell like rivers and spread one to one to a million at the click of a mouse.

Tomorrows leading companies will have to engage people through the social web if they hope to fulfill the pull created by conversations. In doing so, they help themselves by acting on the conversations centric to speeding up cycle times, eliminating redundant activities, extending market reach, and most importantly, enabling buyers of all shapes and sizes with more choices and with greater input into, and control over, relevant business processes.

Many people are tired of companies controlling the conversations about their products and services. The old tricks of the trade are no longer tricks but obvious ploys for people’s attention and the people aren’t buying the tricks anymore.

The old theories of supply and demand have been centric to microeconomics. The new theories will become centric to conversations and the impact said conversations have on markets and the subsequent economics of those markets. The people are now in control of the conversations they want to have, the questions they want answered, the products they want made, the services they want to have and most of all the quality they need. If existing markets aren’t listening and participating they will likely be replaced by those that do.

As the social web becomes more “open” with less walls created by silos the conversational rivers created by the people will become more connected and more influential over markets. The demand on businesses will be for higher quality of service and performance and hiding behind slick marketing messages will become more and more transparent and irrelevant. The shift from supply to demand will have profound effects across every business segment and demographic imaginable.

Demand side economics is a chain controlled by the customer. The larger the chain the greater economic influence over markets. Doc Searls’ VRM vision is to enable more power and influence from the demand side of the supply chain.

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