Plane Conversations

This past week I had the privilege of taking a tour of the Hawker Beechcraft factory and corporate headquarters in Wichita Kansas.

The tour started at our home base in Tennessee with a flight to Wichita on a new Hawker 4000. The aircraft is impressive and I will post soon with video and more information on this new generation, state of the art, mid size business jet.

Our company has operated Beechcraft King Airs for over 25 years, and much of my flying time is logged in various Barons and Bonanzas, so I have been a fan of Beechcraft for a long time.

The King Air series aircraft are without argument the most successful turboprop ever built with a production run spanning 5 decades.

The King Air C90GTX / B200GT / 350I series aircraft are still in production for civilian and military applications. All are evolved from the original King Air that first rolled of the line in 1965.   

Hawker Beech’s jet aircraft in production include the Hawker 4000, Hawker 900XP,  Hawker 750, Hawker 400XP and the Premier 1A/II. The Hawker 750 and 900 series aircraft are evolutions of the original Hawker jets manufactured in the UK and are the best selling series of business jets in the world.   

Hawker Beech also manufacturers variations of the military T-6 trainer, which is the primary trainer for both the navy and air force pilot programs.

The Beech Baron G58 twin engine and Bonanza G36 single engine piston aircraft round out the line of aircraft in production.     

Arriving to the factory at Hawker Beech’s airport in Wichita, our first stop was the delivery hangar, where new aircraft were in the final stage of delivery to the new owners.  There is a large American flag on one wall, prominently displayed as reminder that these aircraft going all over the world are made in America.

Wichita is the number one city for growing exports and Hawker Beech plays a big part. The percentage of aircraft exported now exceeds the percentage staying in the US and this will continue to increase as the demand for business aircraft worldwide grows faster than in the US.

One of the things that interests me most is innovation in our business and Hawker Beechcraft has done that with their new Hawker 4000. The Hawker 4000 has a   composite fuselage and uses composites in combination with traditional metal structures in other areas of the airframe. Composites are lighter but stronger than metal structure allowing savings in weight and increases in fuel efficiency and performance, as well as reduced maintenance costs.

Use of composites in aircraft sturctures is here to stay as evidenced by the Boeing 787 having a composite fuselage.

What impressed me most from the whole tour is the sense of pride emanating from the employees, from the senior management to the people on the floor. These people are proud of what they make and should rightly be proud of the 75 plus year legacy of excellence in aircraft manufacturing.

A lot has been said about the competitiveness of the US aircraft manufacturing industry in the global market.

A current issue that Hawker Beech has to deal with is to what degree they move production out of the US to save costs. The unions in Wichita are fighting for the jobs to remain US and the decisions will be difficult. Hawker Beech must remain price competitive and at the same time they cannot afford to lose the skill and aggregated knowledge of the workforce in Wichita. 

There is a positive and determined corporate culture that I admire with the leadership and employees at Hawker Beech. That will keep them in the competitive game of aircraft manufacturing well into the future.

In college, I took a class called International Strategies and Security.  I believe that I may have been the only non-military student in the class which, for a civilian, turned out to be like a Tom Clancy novel – only it lasted for a whole semester.  We discussed technology that just blew my mind.  I had no idea the things that were possible and I’m sure that what blew my mind then is Stone Age compared to what is possible now.

So yesterday, we talked a little bit about test flights Alaska Airlines is conducting to be greener both environmentally and economically.  I think that there is a lot to celebrate with that.  My one concern with their reliance (and more, with NextGen’s reliance) on satellite technology is the increase in solar storms projected over the next few years.  I am curious to see how the technologists will handle it.

Since the systems do rely on satellite communication, they will be vulnerable to solar flares and storms, the kind we discussed back in March, which brings me back to the same concerns I expressed then.  With so many new pilots being trained using only glass cockpits and satellite approaches, what happens when those systems are compromised?  Worse, what happens when those systems are compromised and the pilots don’t know it?  NextGen, RNP, OPD and RVSM (Reduced Vertical Separation Minimum) are all designed to increase efficiency by tightening up the airspace.  This precision puts more aircraft into smaller spaces.  Well, if a pilot was flying along a flight path ten years ago, he might have encountered another aircraft along the same path; but, since neither of them was flying with today’s degree of precision, there was still likely to be a safe distance between the aircraft.  However, with todays’ greater precision, the space is greatly reduced.  If all systems are operating as advertised, that’s no problem.  In fact, it’s positive situation.  However, if solar flares contaminate the positioning information, an aircraft may be hundreds of feet off position and not know it.  If two aircraft are in the same situation, but are separated by only a few hundreds of feet to begin with, well, you do the math.

The Federal Aviation Administration recently awarded $125 million to Boeing and other companies to develop greener aircraft, fuels and technology.   As aircraft become more advanced and the Gee-Whiz factor in them increases, by definition, they get further away from the simple, stick-controlled Stearman.  I love the advances, don’t get me wrong.  I just know that a great many young pilots are learning on advanced equipment and may not be learning some of the manual basics of their predecessors.  For now, the young group still has access to pilots trained without all of the gizmos.  Those pilots are available to act as mentors and assist the younger generation of aviators in gaining some wisdom, an invaluable asset, as Billy Minkoff pointed out last week.  His example of the new, accessible very light jet and microjet is perfectly appropriate here.  As precision flying gets more precise and pilot training gets further removed from non-precision equipment, without mentoring, how do we avoid the dangers of corrupted satellite data?

What technology and training do we develop to slow or halt the current trend as expressed by CFM Director of Operations Dwayne McMurry, “It used to be that the last words on a cockpit voice recorder were ‘Oh, (explicative)!’  What you hear these days is, ‘What’s it doing now?’ “

As I said yesterday, both the Phenom 100 and the 300 are single pilot certified and are designed to be flown by professional pilots, as well as owner pilots. The latter present a challenge as they are generally a group with little or no pure turbojet time.  Many have flown complex turbo prop aircraft but most owner pilots have spent little time in “fast movers” and lack a complete understanding of their roles and responsibilities in the ATC system. The solution lies in training and competent mentoring.  Embraer includes two “entitlement” training slots for pilots with the purchase of an Executive Jet. The training at ECTS is a thorough introduction into the Phenom and an accurate assessment of acquired skills and knowledge.   The problem is that training ends with the check-ride and subsequent type rating.   And, in any sphere, knowledge without wisdom is incomplete.

A typical type-rating oral exam consists of knowing aircraft systems and limitations along with the immediate action items associated with specific emergency procedures.  A more thorough oral drills deeper with questions involving the working relationships of systems and an understanding of why things work the way they do. The rating-ride is a carefully choreographed series of events that test specific learned procedures such as the loss of an engine on takeoff, the“V-1 Cut”, as well as single-engine approaches and landings.  The entire check ride is given within the confines of a single airport and is an accurate assessment of skills and accomplishment. The FAA oral and rating-ride are excellent tests of pilot preparedness for the unexpected problems that seldom (thankfully) occur in real life.  What a rating-ride can’t do is impart experience and judgment to a first-time jet pilot.  With experience comes wisdom and the safest way for the first-time jet pilot to get that wisdom is with the assistance of a mentor.

Slow down, you move too fast.
You got to make the morning last.
Just kicking down the cobble stones.
Looking for fun and feelin’ groovy.

 (59th St. Bridge Song by Simon and Garfunkel)

Up until recently, Air Traffic Controllers could logically assume that everyone in a jet “kicking down the cobble stones” was a pro-pilot or at least performed like one.  The advent of the personal jet has changed that.  Now anyone with a million dollars, or even less with financing, can buy a jet to look for fun and feel groovy hanging out with the big boys.  Herein lies the problem. The old instructor adage of “slow down and make yourself time for the approach” only works at the cabbage patch, but these personal jet aircraft aren’t staying in the cabbage patch.

A gap has developed between those who understand ATC and fly accordingly and those who feel as if ATC will accommodate their lack of skills and judgment. The saner parties have been the insurance companies who have insisted upon some level of supervision for low time aviators. Insurance companies, at a loss for how gauge skills and judgment, have resorted to insisting on a certain number of hours (usually 25) of supervised flying.  Typically those hours are flown in the course of business for the newly minted personal jet aviator.

Perhaps a better way to ensure the safety and success of the owner-flown community would be to adopt the commercial aviation technique of mentor flying for newly type-rated jet pilots by creating a private IOE (initial operating experience) process. Airlines have long recognized that meaningful mentor programs consist of more than the supervised “drilling of holes” in the sky.  A truly effective mentor program imparts a higher level understanding and competence to the new pilot.

With training fresh in the mind of the newly typed pilot, the mentor reinforces good technique and emphasizes the “real world” application the newly learned skills.  And it takes both training and experience to protect your Phenom investment.

After 23,000 flight hours, I’ve just added my 7th type rating. 300 of those hours are in the Phenom 100.

The math reflects my propensity to stick  to an airplane when I find a good one and the Phenom 100 is a great airplane that does everything asked of it. My affinity hasn’t waned; so, what, then, would lure me away?  The siren song of the Phenom 300; Embraer’s latest Executive Jet offering.

I mentally questioned the ability of Embraer to improve upon the value proposition of the 100, and I was somewhat skeptical that the engineers from Brazil could score two home runs in a row. Duh!  Now I wonder what the gang in Wichita must be thinking. (Option 1: Look for a new job, or Option 2: add more sand to bury their heads deeper?)  I intend to keep flying the 100: but, to anyone out there with a 300 – you go guys!

Flight training is evolutionary. 

You go the first time to initial training and then you go back every year for recurrent training.  You don’t expect to add much because they are just getting you through the paces; but, maybe you learn something new in year two because there is something going on with the development of the aircraft. 

Last summer, I attended Phenom 100 initial training at Embraer CAE Training Services (ECTS), a joint venture between Embraer, a world-class aircraft manufacturer and CAE, a world-leading provider of aviation training.  In spite of the impressive pedigree, the venture experienced quite a few teething problems with the rollout of the first Phenom and I experienced them first-hand.  When I returned to the facility, my expectation was that my second experience would be much the same as my first one.
I was totally surprised when I arrived at CAE Simuflite in Dallas for Phenom 300 transition training.  Arriving on a Monday morning, my colleagues and I were greeted in the front lobby by no fewer than nine bright-eyed and effusively cheery CAE employees. Just after checking in, one of the greeters asked me if I needed directions to my classroom.  Since the schedule handed to me had been printed on a handy, pocket-sized card that wouldn’t get lost in the paperwork shuffle, I replied that I couldn’t miss it. I introduced myself to one of the greeters, Walter Slazyk, and in the course of conversation found that Walter was the CAE Center Leader. 

Different?   I’ll Show You Different! 
Aircraft transition courses typically focus on differences between the “old” airplane and the “new” one. The object of the training program is to prepare you for your check ride, rather than to just impart knowledge to you.  After all, this is a business.  My course was scheduled for one day of ground school followed by three days of simulator instruction and a check ride. I expected a mundane recitation of facts and figures, which I would have to regurgitate during my Friday oral exam. Instead, I was met by Steve Ford and Steve Simpson who both plowed into the whys and wherefores of aircraft systems and flight characteristics – so much more useful than the dry facts and figures.
During my Phenom 100 training process, delays in the certification of the simulator necessitated that my training be accomplished in the airplane.  Times have changed, though.  The new Phenom 300 sim has excellent fidelity and clearly mimics the feel and performance of the airplane. (Turning on the radar and taxiing over runway centerline lights are two great examples.)  On the whole, my expectations were exceeded, by a long-shot.
Both the Phenom 100 and the 300 are single pilot certified and are designed to be flown by professional pilots, as well as owner pilots. The latter present a challenge as they are generally a group with little or no pure turbojet time.  All of these pilots go through ECTS and get the best training the company has to offer.  The training is great, but how do these pilots get the experience they need to form sound judgment?  Join us tomorrow as we discuss the importance of good mentoring programs.

Expected is what has always been and is.

Unexpected is what has never been, but if done, changes the entire market.

Our industry tends to operate in the realm of the expected. We expect business aviation to be expensive relative to other forms of air travel, and so it is. Have you ever heard the saying “if you have to ask about the price you can’t afford it”? When you get to a certain level in business aviation that saying applies in some mindsets.  

We assume that the market is limited by serving the upper echelon of business travelers and the elite celebrities who place the highest value on their time and privacy.

We project demand based on expected models of utilization of business aviation that are tied to the current expected demographic of the user.

Aircraft manufacturers spend billions developing aircraft and then set production levels for that “expected” demand, and seemingly don’t spend much time or money on disruptive innovation models of how their product might be used.

Introduce a recession like we have just experienced and throw the demand models out the window with the expectation that maybe it will get better in a few years.   

So how do we create the unexpected with disruptive innovation that changes the market.

It is done every day in other industries and it has even been done in the airline industry, which is not well known for positive innovation these days.

Almost 40 years ago a little airline in Texas called Southwest took on the legacy carriers with a new model that profitably delivered the seat at a cost to consumers that no one else could emulate for a long time. By doing so they changed the way people travel. They didn’t just take customers from their airline competition. They created a whole new market of air travelers who had been driving or taking the bus. And they did it, and still do it, with the same Boeing 737 that other airlines were using?  

In the 1980’s a guy running an aviation company in Ohio came up with a new idea about selling fractions of jet aircraft to increase the market of jet owners. He succeeded to the point that Warren Buffett bought his business. And in doing so he brought literally thousands of new users into the world of business aviation. 

In both cases it was the same hardware (aircraft) everyone was using but the innovative business model that made the difference. 

Who would have ever expected that Apple would sell 100 million iPhones or millions of a new computing devise called an iPad in a matter of months? Apple doesn’t follow, they lead, and they do so with disruptive innovation. Everyone else follows.

So if we want to continue in an industry with little or no growth, we can keep up with the expected models of business. Or we can do the unexpected and come up with innovation that disrupts the way travel is done with business and private aircraft and create a whole new market.

Is it worth thinking about?

When most people think of UAVs, they think of the attack drones used in Afghanistan and Iraq, such as the Predator and Reaper. These are large aircraft with wingspans up to 65 feet and weighing over 10,000 pounds. However, there are only a few aircraft types of this size that are currently in production. The vast majorities of UAVs are much, much smaller and designed to perform a plethora of different missions. Some UAVs are so small that they can be launched by hand and are no larger than a bird. The implications for this new breed of air vehicles to the aviation industry are enormous.

Hopefully, we will never have the need for widespread use of Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs) in the United States civilian airspace. Instead, UAVs will allow aviation operations to expand into amazing new arenas that were once only seen in science fiction films. Perhaps one of the greatest advantages of a small UAV is the ability to fly undetected within close range of people and equipment on the ground. This has particular benefits for the law enforcement industry which is waiting eagerly to be able to use UAVs for surveillance in urban high-crime areas.

Looking past law enforcement applications for UAVs, there are virtually unlimited potential uses for unmanned flight and new roles are being discovered every day. Some of these applications might include pipeline surveys, air pollution sampling, endangered species monitoring, aerial searches for mineral deposits or oil, water body temperature surveys, and the list goes on and on. The aviation industry needs UAVs because they will provide vast new opportunities for new companies, new jobs, and new technological development. It would be shortsighted to think that UAVs are a fad and will pass in time. Unmanned civilian flight is coming and it is the role of the aviation industry to maximize the potential of this diverse new technology.

This may very well be one of those crucial turning points in technological history where one can either resist new technology only to be left behind or embrace the advances and lead the pack into unexplored territory. Who knew that the internet would change the entire world? We may someday look back and wonder how we ever lived without the marvels of unmanned flight. My point is: unmanned flight will likely affect your life in some way, whether you are a pilot, mechanic, aviation manager, or just someone interested in aviation. I encourage you to look for ways to help make unmanned aviation a positive influence on the aviation industry and not resist the inevitable with unfounded negativity. This does not mean that you have to “like” the idea of unmanned flight, but I would encourage that criticism at least be constructive.

A vastly expanding civilian Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) market is leading to the day when UAVs must be allowed to operate freely in the National Airspace System (NAS). The main obstacle preventing this from happening is the distrust of the ability for a UAV to avoid collisions with manned aircraft. There has been a vast amount of effort put into researching UAV Detect Sense and Avoid (DSA) systems with the hope that an Equivalent Level of Safety (ELOS) can be achieved for unmanned compared to manned flight. The current debate is what type of DSA will provide the required level of safety to prevent increasing the hazard to manned aircraft operations.

There are many different types of DSA systems currently undergoing research, from visual cameras interpreted by humans to automatic detection systems incorporating lasers. ASTM International, an organization that develops industry consensus standards such as those that govern Light Sport Aircraft design, has released a standard (F2411-07) on the requirements for an Airborne DSA system that specifies the minimum capabilities of a DSA. However, this ASTM standard does not (and should not) mandate what type of system must be used.

The overriding question regarding what type of DSA will eventually be used is whether or not the pilot operating the vehicle should be “in the loop”. Can a UAV’s computer detect an aircraft and maneuver to avoid a collision automatically as effectively as a pilot on the ground could view a high resolution video screen and perform the same operation? There are many factors that must be considered before this question will be appropriately answered, such as pilot/computer response times and communication latency. However, a human has the ability to make decisions based on variables that may never have been identified as pertinent by a computer software engineer. Thus, a human interaction with the DSA system may not be the most “precise” option, but probably the most dynamic. Will we ever see 100% autonomous UAV operations in the NAS? Only time will tell.

I like the idea of the taxi cab. When visiting large or unfamiliar cities, the taxi cab is my point-to-point machine of choice.  They are quick and convenient.  And besides that, they’ve provided some of the  most exhilarating rides I have taken - taxis in Abuja, Nigeria, and in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, come to mind specifically. You haven’t lived until you’ve ridden in a taxi in Abuja, and on a trip to Philly a few years ago, like a true NASCAR racer, our taxi driver locked in behind an ambulance with flashing lights and sirens, drafting to get us downtown from the airport like he was on the track at the Pocono 500. 

When most people think of business aviation, they visualize a nice eight to twelve passenger business jet with a luxurious interior of leather and fine wood.  They think of galleys stocked with prepared gourmet meals and good wine.  And, that is part of the industry, to be sure; but, it’s not all of the industry.

What about the 212 mph taxi cab?

Cirrus Design and their new generation aircraft – the SR-22 – has created a new market in business travel.  Research on the Air Charter Guide shows over 40 charter operators across the United States operating Cirrus aircraft in charter service.

Why does the single-engine aircraft work in air taxi service today when it did not work prior to Cirrus?  Perception and Reality.

Perception: Single-engine aircraft are (were) not safe because they only have one engine. What happens if the engine quits?

Reality: Cirrus overcame the perception with the reality of an on board parachute system as a last resort means to deal with engine failures and other emergencies. It has been tested, and it works.  

Perception: Charter service on single-engine aircraft is unreliable since the planes can fly only in clear weather during daylight hours.

Reality: Prior to Cirrus, the single engine piston engine powered aircraft was only certified to fly under Visual Flight Rules (VFR – clear weather) and in the day time. With advances in technology and redundancy in electrical systems, Cirrus was able to certify the aircraft with the FAA to fly charter flights in Instrument Flight Rules (IFR – in the clouds) conditions, and to fly at night. This allowed a reliability of scheduling the air taxi ride in advance, with less worry about what the weather was going to be like on the day of the trip. This was the major game changer!

The innovation of single-engine air taxi in both aircraft design and service offering is part of the new productive and efficient way to do business travel. It may not be as glamorous and comfy as the business jet, but it is very cost-efficient.

So, welcome to the age of the 212 mph taxi ride! It may not be as flashy as the jet, but it beats waiting for gate announcements.  Besides, it is a whole lot more fun and in no way scary like the taxi rides in Philly or Abuja.

UAVs and the Future of Aviation: Crash and Burn or Taking Off to New Heights?

There has been a lot of discussion in the aviation industry recently regarding the imminent operation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), called Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UASs) by the FAA, in the National Airspace System (NAS) and their impact on the safety of manned aircraft operations. However, there has been little attention paid to the economic impact of UAVs on the aviation job market.

Some pilots are concerned that widespread use of UAVs will reduce the number of pilot positions that are available and do further damage to an already weak job market. There are also other considerations such as whether or not UAVs will be maintained by licensed A&P mechanics or a special UAV technician. If manned operations become unmanned, there is a popular belief that the aviation economy as a whole may be damaged.

In actuality, the fears of UAVs having a negative impact on the aviation industry are most likely unfounded. The FAA has stated that UASs are civil aircraft in accordance with 14 CFR §1.1 and are therefore required to be operated by pilots certificated under the requirements of FAR Part 61. In addition, the aircraft will also have to be maintained by FAA certified technicians. Since these regulations apply to UAVs in the same manner as manned aircraft, it is likely that demand for pilots and maintenance technicians will only increase with the introduction of UAVs into the NAS. Beyond the need for airmen, UAVs will open up new jobs for engineers, avionics technicians, flight test personnel, and communications experts. Also, many new types of aviation operations will be possible with the use of unmanned aircraft and such an expansion of aviation can only lead to a boost for the aviation industry.

Every time someone posts something online the context of their content reveals an intent. Intentions have become transparent and discernment of intent is becoming the wisdom of crowds.

The aggregation of consumer conversations enabled by technology has fueled awareness of market methods and intents. Consumers have found influence and have begun to “opt out” of the old methods created by old market methods of intent to capture and sell.

Social technology has created a transparency of intent. Intent is a relational attribute that reveals motive. The “markets of conversations” are no longer motivated by old methods used by the markets over the last 40 years. Doc Searls says “The Intention Economy is built around more than transactions. Conversations matter. So do relationships. So do reputation, authority and respect. Those virtues, however, are earned by sellers (as well as buyers) and not just “branded” by sellers on the minds of buyers like the symbols of ranchers burned on the hides of cattle.”

A Brands Letter of Intent

A letter of intent or LOI is a document outlining an agreement between two or more parties before the agreement is finalized. Such agreements may be for employment, acquisitions, mergers, purchases of services or products. Agreements which aim to specify the intents of parties engaged in a relationship for specific purposes.

The purposes of a LOI may be:

• to clarify the key points of a complex or simple transaction for the convenience of the parties
• to declare officially that the parties are now engaged with an intent implied or specifically spelled out
• to offer safeguards for when the relationship collapses during an engagement with intent

A LOI may also be referred to as a memorandum of understanding (MOU), term sheet or discussion sheet. The different terms show different styles, but do not show any difference under law. Social letters of intent exist when and where buyers and sellers engage on-line through the exchange of information and later a transaction which has certain expectations of delivery.

Social Agreements Represent LOI’s

When people engage with other people or entire organizations on-line there is an implied social agreement represented within the communications. The social agreement may be in response to an inquiry, a comment on posted content or an intent to investigate or take action from an ad or marketing message. The social agreement may also simply be a response to a need or an exchange of communications centric to topical discussions.

Given the reach of social technology and the engagement of markets, buyers and sellers, the underlying social agreement is similar to the traditional letter of intent. While social agreements are not legal instruments the expectations of fulfillment by both parties remain the same as if they were legally agreements.

The very nature of social technology and the emerging dynamics are raising people’s expectation to fulfill implied intents contained in context with the content (communications). It is clear that traditional marketing and advertising methods are being rejected because the intent of such methods are not what buyers expect. Today’s buyers expect honesty, integrity, responsiveness, performance and respect for their time, attention and intentions.

Cluttering buyers time, attention and relevant intentions with irrelevant ads and slick marketing messages does not show respect. Treating buyers like cattle waiting to be herded does not show respect. The currency of communications represents the value of ones intent to fulfill or fail to fulfill the intent of a social agreement. Failure to fulfill a social agreement means the buyers currency, both in the form of money and communications, will not follow you rather both will be spent and shared elsewhere.

Social letters of intent are not created by or from the supplier rather from the buyer. To ignore or not fulfill these intents means you lose the buyers currency and that of their “friends”. That represents a return, or lack thereof, from this thing called social media.