Plane Conversations

The beginning of online travel created new business models that changed the dynamics and relationships with buyers.  Now with the advent of social technology the dynamics are changing again.

instead of the traditional travel site being the brand the brand has become the traveler.

As a result, the present online travel bazaar has become a race to become more social. Technology and savvy buyers have dramatically changed online travel over the past two years. The app market, for instance, has swelled from virtually nothing to billions of dollars in just a few years, and smartphone owners love their access to a gaggle of Wi-Fi finders, flight status updaters, local restaurant finders, budget booking assistants, translators and more.

Websites offering unique travel-oriented services have made a strong showing, too. They include Wanderfly, a personalized travel recommendation travel engine à la Hunch and Pandora; and GTrot, a site that allows travelers to share their itineraries with friends and get travel advice within their networks.

Applications like these will continue to grow, improving the efficiency of the overall industry by improving the connectivity of air travel information between flights and friends.

Chasing the Lowest Common Denominator

While on-line applications enable travelers to connect and collaborate, few if any do anything to improve the travel experience. Commercial airline travel experiences are abysmal and getting worse. While the efficiency of commercial air travel for consumers and businesses has diminished could there be a better alternative emerging?

Social technology will not enhance the value of on-line travel sites enough to improve pricing.  Social technology has become a “must be” rather than a differentiator and it, by itself, doesn’t change the lowest common denominator, price.  Finding “best” prices has become easy given the power of search and the recent introduction of Google Flights.  Finding the best experience and the highest value has become difficult but may change soon.

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An airplane moves people and connects them with other people and things.

The internet connects people and moves things.

Airplane operators know that using aircraft can be an expensive proposition. Use of the internet is free. If you combined something expensive with something free what happens?

Do Private Jet Operators Understand The Implications?

There has been a saying in the private jet business: If you have to ask the price, you can’t afford it. People who use private jets generally haven’t hunted for the best prices because it’s a status thing. These two statements used to be foundational truths in the private aviation business. But things are changing.

There are a finite number of wealthy people and/or corporations who desire to own or use a private jet regardless of the cost. Most charter operators have chased all the wealthy people for a sale so operators end up chasing the same customer over and over. Even the wealthy are feeling the economic pitch and shareholders are questioning the cost of and need for private aircraft.  Now charter operators are being pressured to justify and lower their cost. Cost has become transparent thanks to the internet.  Yet most operators do not fully understand the implications of transparency and social technology on old business models and methods.

What Are The Implications?

Business travelers and affluent individuals are becoming disenchanted with commercial flights, crowded airports, flight delays, and inconvenient schedules. These travelers are looking for alternatives to save time and reduce the hassles of commercial air travel. So they go to the internet to examine private aviation alternatives. What do they find and see?  At most, Web.1.0!

When you do a search for “private jets” or “private aviation” what comes up on the first page are listings of jet brokers (those that don’t operate or own any jets). You also see lots of references to “cost per hour, fractional jets and a host of other terms that are foreign to buyers”.

So let’s say someone decides to click on any of the links. They end up on a static web page with pretty pictures of expensive jets and self- proclaimed accolades of how great this company is then an 800 number to call for a quote.

So if someone looking for an alternative to commercial air travel hasn’t already lost interest in their search then the next step is to actually make a call. Then someone answers the call and begins asking questions to the caller of which the caller has no idea what they are talking about. Not wanting to sound stupid the caller fakes their way through the dialog expecting to get a quote at the end of the call. Instead the broker/operator says “can I have your email or number so I can get back to you?”

If the buyer agrees it then takes the broker/operator at least half a dozen phone calls, faxes, or emails, before you can get a charter estimate which may or may not be correct. Then the operator/broker emails you the quote of which has so many disclaimers and its format doesn’t make any sense to the buyer. All this, and you have not boarded the plane yet.   Besides that all he buyer wanted to know is what is my seat cost and what I get for it.

By now operators are reading this saying “You don’t understand our business model, we don’t sell seats we sell jets”.  To which I would say “I know but every jet has a certain number of seats and the total cost is represented by a cost per seat, full or not.”

Broken Business Models

According to a Forrester’s recent report, there are about 53.8 Million socially engaged eBusiness travelers in the United States alone. A new market opportunity for private aviation. It’s all about the passenger – they have the money.

Certainly not all 53.8 million business travelers would consider private aviation as an alternative travel option. But let’s say 1% would which means 53,000 potentially new customers.

The private aviation industry couldn’t imagine having 53 thousand new customers because their mindsets are frozen in old business models and expensive archaic operating processes.  Today’s charter revenues barely cover the aircraft management and operational costs, and almost never reach levels necessary to cover an aircraft’s cost of ownership. At the same time in the charter world an aircraft flies empty 40% to 60% of the time.  What a waste!

It is time for a revolution in innovative private aviation business models if the industry wants to capture the significant growth opportunity fueled by demand from disgruntled business travelers looking for viable alternatives.

Old mindsets are saying “You don’t understand how we operate”. My response is “You don’t understand how to change the way you operate”.

-Ralph Waldo Emerson “Who you are speaks so loudly I can’t hear what you‘re saying.”

Stay tuned for “What Would Jet 3.0 Look Like?”

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Over the past few months as I have talked both online and offline to people about Social Flights, a question has been raised about the impact of the Social Flights business model on the security of private aviation flights. A recent tweet from @tinsko started a dialogue via twitter about this issue that prompted me to write more on this issue from my perspective as an operator of charter aircraft.

In private aviation, whether operating charter flights, running a corporate flight department or flying your own aircraft, the reality of security is that we know who is on our flight. For starters, on a small aircraft carrying 4 to 12 people it would be strange to be sitting on a flight with someone you did not know, or at least know why they were on the flight. I think all of us who have experienced flying this way can say we have never been on an aircraft when we did not know who was on our flight and why they were on it.

There are ways that we as a charter operator comply with security, such as checking passengers against the no fly list and training of our employees to identify potential threats. These are all good security filters to prevent boarding a passenger who could be a threat.

What most of us will say, however, is that the best security measure is to know your passengers on a more personal level.

When I board an airline flight, most of the time I don’t know anyone else on the flight, unless I am traveling with others from my company or family members. What I do assume is that we have all gone through security screening and no fly lists, so that by the time we get on the aircraft the risk has been mitigated to an acceptable level.  All of this screening does not prevent the occasional passenger going nuts on the flight and trying something crazy. We have seen these stories lately.  Fortunately, the most anyone has succeeded at doing is getting thrown off the flight and met at the gate by law enforcement.

Back to charter flights. As our business model for Social Flights develops, people will self-aggregate around travel intentions and charter flights. They will board a small jet together and go to a common destination. Before that flight they may not have met each other in person, but I am convinced they will know more about each other than they know about the person they share space with on an airline flight.

With the explosion of social technology in the past seven years, most of us now know so much more about the rest of us than we ever have before. We all have put ourselves out there on Facebook, Linked In and Twitter and we have a history of interaction with each other. A history that says way more about who are than a security screening or a government list.

So before I share a Social Flights ride with you I will know a lot about who you are, who your friends are, who your business associates are, and what you have been up to recently. And based on that knowledge I can make some pretty good assumptions about what level of threat you might impose on me and our fellow passengers when we fly together.

Nothing is completely fail safe and our society can never completely protect ourselves from bad actors who are intent on harming us. But our intelligence agencies have proven that good information is the best basis for preventing acts of terrorism.  

I would propose that getting to know each other before we share a ride on a jet might be one of the best security measures we could use. It has never been easier to develop that trust than it is today with the advent of social technology.

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Good ideas travel easily and far along trade routes.  Ideas like irrigation, Apples, grapes and wine spread along the Silk Road. The paper and writing spread new ideas leading to increased literacy, the scrapping of old philosophy and the creation of new social orders. The printing press then led the way for today’s mighty publishing Industry.  But don’t forget a simple fact, travel is the substrate of the next economic paradigm.

Ideas: A Chain with many Weak Links

Seth Godin wrote a wonderful article about the publishing industry called The Domino Effect.  He observes that:

1. The middlemen (bookstores) have too much power to limit shelf space.

2.Authors are separated from their readers and don’t have the data to contact them directly.

3. Pricing is based static, slow, and largely irrelevant of content or any form of supply and demand which is of little benefit to the reader or the author.

4. Ideas from books travel much farther and faster than the book itself which does not translate into book sales.

Mr. Godin’s point is that given how important books are, the Chain has many weak links between the author and the audience. Publishing is due for an extraordinary disruption and Seth is going to change it with The Domino Project.  But how many other industries suffer from the same weak-chain syndrome?

Travel: A Plane with many Weak Links

Well, if Books and Travel spreads ideas along the Silk Road, then they must have a lot of other things in common.  If we apply Seth’s observations to the commercial airlines:

1. We see that Airports and airlines have tremendous power to limit gates, times, and availability of routes.

2.  Airlines have no idea why they are carrying all those people around.

3. Pricing is static, segmented, slow, and has very little to do with the actual supply and demand for travel.

4. Travelers are transporting ideas which move faster and more broadly than the aircraft itself and which does not translate into more airline tickets sold.

Where ideas spread; value is created

What is so powerful about ideas?  Most innovation gurus discount raw “ideas” as the useless drivel of idle minds. “Show me the money, not the ideas”, they bark.  If ideas are not innovation, then what are they?  If Ideas are not valuable, then what are they?

The Travel Economy

Travel technologies and applications are being sold for incredible sums of money.  Every airline merger is big news and every geolocation application is huge business.  Travel data is a lightening rod for everything from pricing to privacy.  Social Media applications are getting that migration routes are an excellent marker for “value flow” and therefore, cash flow.  Airline Travel is still the most favored mode political disruption because the links in the economic chain are so weak.  Travel is serious business.

The “New Value” Integration:

Every industry with weak links between production and end use are candidates for disruption in the great integration. Any idea that can strengthen the link in the chain between origin and the destination of an idea is a product of the great integration.  The Social Value creation process and astonishing opportunity will happen at the weak links between origin and destination of any product or service.

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A January 17 press release from Embraer announces that Embraer delivered 100 Phenom deliveries in 2010 making it number one in most deliveries. That’s pretty impressive for a new aircraft that was only certified at the end of 2008, and especially taking into consideration the economy.

An excerpt from the press release:

One hundred aircraft delivered: more than any other business jet in the world.

São José dos Campos, January 17, 2011 – Embraer’s Phenom 100 entry-level executive jet was number one, with 100 deliveries in 2010. Together with the other airplanes of Embraer Executive Jets’ portfolio, the Phenom 100’s success is also reflected in the Company’s increasing market share, which is the fastest growing in business aviation in terms of units delivered.

“Its clean-sheet design, superior cabin comfort, amazing performance, low operating cost, as well as the jet’s great looks, have thrilled our customers,” said Luís Carlos Affonso, Embraer Executive Vice President, Executive Jets. “We are honored and thankful to our customers for their choice and confidence in the Phenom program and in the Embraer brand.”

Our delivery group at JetQuik, led by Bill Minkoff, has delivered 16 Phenom 100 and  2 Phenom 300 aircraft to customers in the US and Europe since October 2009. The acceptance and deliver process gets smoother with each delivery. Embraer is building great aircraft.

We are proud to be managing and operating two Phenom 100’s in charter service. They have gained good market acceptance with our charter passengers and are proving themselves as they get time in service.

Congratulations to Embraer for making a great entry level business jet.  I look forward to seeing the Legacy 450 and 500 aircraft when they reach certification and production.

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An October 14 article in the Wichita Eagle by Molly McMillin says the aviation manufacturing industry in Wichita is waiting on the rebound of the economy and the business aviation market.

If you are leading you don’t sit around and wait on anything or anybody. You blaze a trail and create your own economic recovery.

The true innovators in the history of modern economies did not wait on rebound, they created it.

In business aviation will we allow our fates to be tied to decisions made by the government, by economic down turns and up turns, by someone else’s innovation and prosperity? If so we are in trouble.

A recent post by Dan Robles  of the Ingenesist Project stated the following:

The invention of the wheel, wedge, and pulley came long before the invention of credit scores, CDO’s, and International Trade Agreements.

Technological Change must always precede economic growth – economic growth cannot sustainably precede technological change. If you throw money at a problem, you are not guaranteed technological change.  If you throw technological change at a problem, you are guaranteed money.

We are going about the process of globalization as if economic growth can precede technological change.  This is the tiny flaw of market capitalism and it is unsustainable.  In short, we’ve gotten it backwards and continuing on this course prevents us from seeing the future.

Sadly to me it seems that our industry is stuck in a mindset that we will be in a “no growth mode” to “slow growth mode” for the next few years. That means no new jobs, maybe even a few more layoffs,  and those of us who are here today will be fighting for a piece of the pie that is not going to get any bigger anytime soon.

A good example of innovation driving a market is the personal computing industry.  The market has grown because price went down at the same time computing power went up. The growth has been exponential, not in small increments. And because of that growth, billions of people have the power in their hands to communicate and connect that we could not have imagined 20 years ago.

What about the growth of social media as a way for people to connect? Facebook surpassed 500 million users this summer. Who could have predicted the adoption rate of social media 5 years ago? Did any of us have social media in our marketing plans in 2005?

So if we want our industry to grow, and the manufacturers of  business aircraft can’t innovate fast enough to deliver a faster less expensive machine like the personal computing industry, then what do the rest of us to do?

Can we innovate, through the use of social technology, to offer travelers a new solution?

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On a  recent Lineage 1000 demonstration flight tour in the United States, Embraer Executive Jets Regional Sales Manager Cameron Gowans invited me to experience this aircraft firsthand by riding along on a repositioning flight from Dallas to Chicago.  In spite of the fact that I grew up in business aviation, I have never before had the opportunity to ride on an aircraft of this caliber.  And, I can tell you that it took some time for me to get over the “Wow!” factor.  

Approaching the aircraft, you believe are about to board an airliner which, in fact, you are. Built on the E190 series airliner, but with additional fuel for long-range flights, the Lineage 1000 is Embraer’s top of the line executive jet. The size of the aircraft is really closer to an Airbus 318 than any corporate jet made and, in airline configuration, it carries 94-112 passengers. For the Lineage 1000, Embraer advertises over 25 different cabin modules that allow you to customize the aircraft to fit your mission requirements.  The aircraft I flew in is configured with a beautiful executive interior that seats up to 19 passengers.

On our short, two-hour flight, I got the full tour of the five distinct cabin zones, including the aft-most zone containing a bedroom with private bathroom and stand-up shower.  The 19 passenger configuration could easily accommodate all of those passengers with no one feeling at all crowded. There is also plenty of baggage space for a full load of passengers and the baggage area is accessible from the cabin.

The design of the cabin makes for a more pleasurable passenger experience by controlling both noise and pressurization.  In both take-off and cruise, the cabin was quiet enough to carry on a normal conversation with fellow travelers.  And, at a cruising altitude of 41,000 feet, the cabin altitude is 7000 feet which reduces travel fatigue over aircraft with lower pressurization differentials. 

As far as cabin size, this aircraft falls between the Boeing BBJ / Airbus 318 and the Gulfstream G550/ Global Express. While the Lineage 1000 is comparable to the G550 in purchase price, in terms of cubic volume in the cabin, the Lineage 1000 has more than twice that of the G550. However, with a non-stop range of 4200 nautical miles, the Lineage 1000 does not match the 6750 nautical mile range of the Gulfstream G550.  So, while you can go non-stop from Chicago to London, London to Dubai or Dubai to Beijing on the Lineage, a trip from Chicago to Tokyo would require a refueling stop.  The question then becomes: are you willing to trade cabin size and comfort for increased range?  Since the typical missions for many companies never need the full range of the aircraft, the question may not need to be asked.  And, given my experience in the cabin, even if you do have to make a fuel stop in the Lineage, you would not feel the need to depart the aircraft.  Sitting in the cabin feels much more like being in a high end condominium than in an aircraft.   

The aircraft is state of the art design with fly by wire controls and the latest in avionics technology. It is built on an airframe designed for the rigors, reliability and economic  requirements of airline service; so, maintenance reliability should be excellent and should continue to improve as the E190 series accumulate fleet time in airline service.

Entering the cabin, you get the feel of being in an aircraft that could easily be the transportation for a head of state or an executive for a large multi-national company.  For governments, companies and high net worth individuals with international travel requirements who are looking for mission capable executive transport, this aircraft will fit a niche in the market.

Hats off to Embraer for continuing to innovate and bring new solutions for executive transport to the market.

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This past week I had the privilege of taking a tour of the Hawker Beechcraft factory and corporate headquarters in Wichita Kansas.

The tour started at our home base in Tennessee with a flight to Wichita on a new Hawker 4000. The aircraft is impressive and I will post soon with video and more information on this new generation, state of the art, mid size business jet.

Our company has operated Beechcraft King Airs for over 25 years, and much of my flying time is logged in various Barons and Bonanzas, so I have been a fan of Beechcraft for a long time.

The King Air series aircraft are without argument the most successful turboprop ever built with a production run spanning 5 decades.

The King Air C90GTX / B200GT / 350I series aircraft are still in production for civilian and military applications. All are evolved from the original King Air that first rolled of the line in 1965.   

Hawker Beech’s jet aircraft in production include the Hawker 4000, Hawker 900XP,  Hawker 750, Hawker 400XP and the Premier 1A/II. The Hawker 750 and 900 series aircraft are evolutions of the original Hawker jets manufactured in the UK and are the best selling series of business jets in the world.   

Hawker Beech also manufacturers variations of the military T-6 trainer, which is the primary trainer for both the navy and air force pilot programs.

The Beech Baron G58 twin engine and Bonanza G36 single engine piston aircraft round out the line of aircraft in production.     

Arriving to the factory at Hawker Beech’s airport in Wichita, our first stop was the delivery hangar, where new aircraft were in the final stage of delivery to the new owners.  There is a large American flag on one wall, prominently displayed as reminder that these aircraft going all over the world are made in America.

Wichita is the number one city for growing exports and Hawker Beech plays a big part. The percentage of aircraft exported now exceeds the percentage staying in the US and this will continue to increase as the demand for business aircraft worldwide grows faster than in the US.

One of the things that interests me most is innovation in our business and Hawker Beechcraft has done that with their new Hawker 4000. The Hawker 4000 has a   composite fuselage and uses composites in combination with traditional metal structures in other areas of the airframe. Composites are lighter but stronger than metal structure allowing savings in weight and increases in fuel efficiency and performance, as well as reduced maintenance costs.

Use of composites in aircraft sturctures is here to stay as evidenced by the Boeing 787 having a composite fuselage.

What impressed me most from the whole tour is the sense of pride emanating from the employees, from the senior management to the people on the floor. These people are proud of what they make and should rightly be proud of the 75 plus year legacy of excellence in aircraft manufacturing.

A lot has been said about the competitiveness of the US aircraft manufacturing industry in the global market.

A current issue that Hawker Beech has to deal with is to what degree they move production out of the US to save costs. The unions in Wichita are fighting for the jobs to remain US and the decisions will be difficult. Hawker Beech must remain price competitive and at the same time they cannot afford to lose the skill and aggregated knowledge of the workforce in Wichita. 

There is a positive and determined corporate culture that I admire with the leadership and employees at Hawker Beech. That will keep them in the competitive game of aircraft manufacturing well into the future.

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In college, I took a class called International Strategies and Security.  I believe that I may have been the only non-military student in the class which, for a civilian, turned out to be like a Tom Clancy novel – only it lasted for a whole semester.  We discussed technology that just blew my mind.  I had no idea the things that were possible and I’m sure that what blew my mind then is Stone Age compared to what is possible now.

So yesterday, we talked a little bit about test flights Alaska Airlines is conducting to be greener both environmentally and economically.  I think that there is a lot to celebrate with that.  My one concern with their reliance (and more, with NextGen’s reliance) on satellite technology is the increase in solar storms projected over the next few years.  I am curious to see how the technologists will handle it.

Since the systems do rely on satellite communication, they will be vulnerable to solar flares and storms, the kind we discussed back in March, which brings me back to the same concerns I expressed then.  With so many new pilots being trained using only glass cockpits and satellite approaches, what happens when those systems are compromised?  Worse, what happens when those systems are compromised and the pilots don’t know it?  NextGen, RNP, OPD and RVSM (Reduced Vertical Separation Minimum) are all designed to increase efficiency by tightening up the airspace.  This precision puts more aircraft into smaller spaces.  Well, if a pilot was flying along a flight path ten years ago, he might have encountered another aircraft along the same path; but, since neither of them was flying with today’s degree of precision, there was still likely to be a safe distance between the aircraft.  However, with todays’ greater precision, the space is greatly reduced.  If all systems are operating as advertised, that’s no problem.  In fact, it’s positive situation.  However, if solar flares contaminate the positioning information, an aircraft may be hundreds of feet off position and not know it.  If two aircraft are in the same situation, but are separated by only a few hundreds of feet to begin with, well, you do the math.

The Federal Aviation Administration recently awarded $125 million to Boeing and other companies to develop greener aircraft, fuels and technology.   As aircraft become more advanced and the Gee-Whiz factor in them increases, by definition, they get further away from the simple, stick-controlled Stearman.  I love the advances, don’t get me wrong.  I just know that a great many young pilots are learning on advanced equipment and may not be learning some of the manual basics of their predecessors.  For now, the young group still has access to pilots trained without all of the gizmos.  Those pilots are available to act as mentors and assist the younger generation of aviators in gaining some wisdom, an invaluable asset, as Billy Minkoff pointed out last week.  His example of the new, accessible very light jet and microjet is perfectly appropriate here.  As precision flying gets more precise and pilot training gets further removed from non-precision equipment, without mentoring, how do we avoid the dangers of corrupted satellite data?

What technology and training do we develop to slow or halt the current trend as expressed by CFM Director of Operations Dwayne McMurry, “It used to be that the last words on a cockpit voice recorder were ‘Oh, (explicative)!’  What you hear these days is, ‘What’s it doing now?’ “

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As I said yesterday, both the Phenom 100 and the 300 are single pilot certified and are designed to be flown by professional pilots, as well as owner pilots. The latter present a challenge as they are generally a group with little or no pure turbojet time.  Many have flown complex turbo prop aircraft but most owner pilots have spent little time in “fast movers” and lack a complete understanding of their roles and responsibilities in the ATC system. The solution lies in training and competent mentoring.  Embraer includes two “entitlement” training slots for pilots with the purchase of an Executive Jet. The training at ECTS is a thorough introduction into the Phenom and an accurate assessment of acquired skills and knowledge.   The problem is that training ends with the check-ride and subsequent type rating.   And, in any sphere, knowledge without wisdom is incomplete.

A typical type-rating oral exam consists of knowing aircraft systems and limitations along with the immediate action items associated with specific emergency procedures.  A more thorough oral drills deeper with questions involving the working relationships of systems and an understanding of why things work the way they do. The rating-ride is a carefully choreographed series of events that test specific learned procedures such as the loss of an engine on takeoff, the“V-1 Cut”, as well as single-engine approaches and landings.  The entire check ride is given within the confines of a single airport and is an accurate assessment of skills and accomplishment. The FAA oral and rating-ride are excellent tests of pilot preparedness for the unexpected problems that seldom (thankfully) occur in real life.  What a rating-ride can’t do is impart experience and judgment to a first-time jet pilot.  With experience comes wisdom and the safest way for the first-time jet pilot to get that wisdom is with the assistance of a mentor.

Slow down, you move too fast.
You got to make the morning last.
Just kicking down the cobble stones.
Looking for fun and feelin’ groovy.

 (59th St. Bridge Song by Simon and Garfunkel)

Up until recently, Air Traffic Controllers could logically assume that everyone in a jet “kicking down the cobble stones” was a pro-pilot or at least performed like one.  The advent of the personal jet has changed that.  Now anyone with a million dollars, or even less with financing, can buy a jet to look for fun and feel groovy hanging out with the big boys.  Herein lies the problem. The old instructor adage of “slow down and make yourself time for the approach” only works at the cabbage patch, but these personal jet aircraft aren’t staying in the cabbage patch.

A gap has developed between those who understand ATC and fly accordingly and those who feel as if ATC will accommodate their lack of skills and judgment. The saner parties have been the insurance companies who have insisted upon some level of supervision for low time aviators. Insurance companies, at a loss for how gauge skills and judgment, have resorted to insisting on a certain number of hours (usually 25) of supervised flying.  Typically those hours are flown in the course of business for the newly minted personal jet aviator.

Perhaps a better way to ensure the safety and success of the owner-flown community would be to adopt the commercial aviation technique of mentor flying for newly type-rated jet pilots by creating a private IOE (initial operating experience) process. Airlines have long recognized that meaningful mentor programs consist of more than the supervised “drilling of holes” in the sky.  A truly effective mentor program imparts a higher level understanding and competence to the new pilot.

With training fresh in the mind of the newly typed pilot, the mentor reinforces good technique and emphasizes the “real world” application the newly learned skills.  And it takes both training and experience to protect your Phenom investment.

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