Plane Conversations

After 23,000 flight hours, I’ve just added my 7th type rating. 300 of those hours are in the Phenom 100.

The math reflects my propensity to stick  to an airplane when I find a good one and the Phenom 100 is a great airplane that does everything asked of it. My affinity hasn’t waned; so, what, then, would lure me away?  The siren song of the Phenom 300; Embraer’s latest Executive Jet offering.

I mentally questioned the ability of Embraer to improve upon the value proposition of the 100, and I was somewhat skeptical that the engineers from Brazil could score two home runs in a row. Duh!  Now I wonder what the gang in Wichita must be thinking. (Option 1: Look for a new job, or Option 2: add more sand to bury their heads deeper?)  I intend to keep flying the 100: but, to anyone out there with a 300 – you go guys!

Flight training is evolutionary. 

You go the first time to initial training and then you go back every year for recurrent training.  You don’t expect to add much because they are just getting you through the paces; but, maybe you learn something new in year two because there is something going on with the development of the aircraft. 

Last summer, I attended Phenom 100 initial training at Embraer CAE Training Services (ECTS), a joint venture between Embraer, a world-class aircraft manufacturer and CAE, a world-leading provider of aviation training.  In spite of the impressive pedigree, the venture experienced quite a few teething problems with the rollout of the first Phenom and I experienced them first-hand.  When I returned to the facility, my expectation was that my second experience would be much the same as my first one.
I was totally surprised when I arrived at CAE Simuflite in Dallas for Phenom 300 transition training.  Arriving on a Monday morning, my colleagues and I were greeted in the front lobby by no fewer than nine bright-eyed and effusively cheery CAE employees. Just after checking in, one of the greeters asked me if I needed directions to my classroom.  Since the schedule handed to me had been printed on a handy, pocket-sized card that wouldn’t get lost in the paperwork shuffle, I replied that I couldn’t miss it. I introduced myself to one of the greeters, Walter Slazyk, and in the course of conversation found that Walter was the CAE Center Leader. 

Different?   I’ll Show You Different! 
Aircraft transition courses typically focus on differences between the “old” airplane and the “new” one. The object of the training program is to prepare you for your check ride, rather than to just impart knowledge to you.  After all, this is a business.  My course was scheduled for one day of ground school followed by three days of simulator instruction and a check ride. I expected a mundane recitation of facts and figures, which I would have to regurgitate during my Friday oral exam. Instead, I was met by Steve Ford and Steve Simpson who both plowed into the whys and wherefores of aircraft systems and flight characteristics – so much more useful than the dry facts and figures.
During my Phenom 100 training process, delays in the certification of the simulator necessitated that my training be accomplished in the airplane.  Times have changed, though.  The new Phenom 300 sim has excellent fidelity and clearly mimics the feel and performance of the airplane. (Turning on the radar and taxiing over runway centerline lights are two great examples.)  On the whole, my expectations were exceeded, by a long-shot.
Both the Phenom 100 and the 300 are single pilot certified and are designed to be flown by professional pilots, as well as owner pilots. The latter present a challenge as they are generally a group with little or no pure turbojet time.  All of these pilots go through ECTS and get the best training the company has to offer.  The training is great, but how do these pilots get the experience they need to form sound judgment?  Join us tomorrow as we discuss the importance of good mentoring programs.

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Expected is what has always been and is.

Unexpected is what has never been, but if done, changes the entire market.

Our industry tends to operate in the realm of the expected. We expect business aviation to be expensive relative to other forms of air travel, and so it is. Have you ever heard the saying “if you have to ask about the price you can’t afford it”? When you get to a certain level in business aviation that saying applies in some mindsets.  

We assume that the market is limited by serving the upper echelon of business travelers and the elite celebrities who place the highest value on their time and privacy.

We project demand based on expected models of utilization of business aviation that are tied to the current expected demographic of the user.

Aircraft manufacturers spend billions developing aircraft and then set production levels for that “expected” demand, and seemingly don’t spend much time or money on disruptive innovation models of how their product might be used.

Introduce a recession like we have just experienced and throw the demand models out the window with the expectation that maybe it will get better in a few years.   

So how do we create the unexpected with disruptive innovation that changes the market.

It is done every day in other industries and it has even been done in the airline industry, which is not well known for positive innovation these days.

Almost 40 years ago a little airline in Texas called Southwest took on the legacy carriers with a new model that profitably delivered the seat at a cost to consumers that no one else could emulate for a long time. By doing so they changed the way people travel. They didn’t just take customers from their airline competition. They created a whole new market of air travelers who had been driving or taking the bus. And they did it, and still do it, with the same Boeing 737 that other airlines were using?  

In the 1980’s a guy running an aviation company in Ohio came up with a new idea about selling fractions of jet aircraft to increase the market of jet owners. He succeeded to the point that Warren Buffett bought his business. And in doing so he brought literally thousands of new users into the world of business aviation. 

In both cases it was the same hardware (aircraft) everyone was using but the innovative business model that made the difference. 

Who would have ever expected that Apple would sell 100 million iPhones or millions of a new computing devise called an iPad in a matter of months? Apple doesn’t follow, they lead, and they do so with disruptive innovation. Everyone else follows.

So if we want to continue in an industry with little or no growth, we can keep up with the expected models of business. Or we can do the unexpected and come up with innovation that disrupts the way travel is done with business and private aircraft and create a whole new market.

Is it worth thinking about?

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When most people think of UAVs, they think of the attack drones used in Afghanistan and Iraq, such as the Predator and Reaper. These are large aircraft with wingspans up to 65 feet and weighing over 10,000 pounds. However, there are only a few aircraft types of this size that are currently in production. The vast majorities of UAVs are much, much smaller and designed to perform a plethora of different missions. Some UAVs are so small that they can be launched by hand and are no larger than a bird. The implications for this new breed of air vehicles to the aviation industry are enormous.

Hopefully, we will never have the need for widespread use of Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs) in the United States civilian airspace. Instead, UAVs will allow aviation operations to expand into amazing new arenas that were once only seen in science fiction films. Perhaps one of the greatest advantages of a small UAV is the ability to fly undetected within close range of people and equipment on the ground. This has particular benefits for the law enforcement industry which is waiting eagerly to be able to use UAVs for surveillance in urban high-crime areas.

Looking past law enforcement applications for UAVs, there are virtually unlimited potential uses for unmanned flight and new roles are being discovered every day. Some of these applications might include pipeline surveys, air pollution sampling, endangered species monitoring, aerial searches for mineral deposits or oil, water body temperature surveys, and the list goes on and on. The aviation industry needs UAVs because they will provide vast new opportunities for new companies, new jobs, and new technological development. It would be shortsighted to think that UAVs are a fad and will pass in time. Unmanned civilian flight is coming and it is the role of the aviation industry to maximize the potential of this diverse new technology.

This may very well be one of those crucial turning points in technological history where one can either resist new technology only to be left behind or embrace the advances and lead the pack into unexplored territory. Who knew that the internet would change the entire world? We may someday look back and wonder how we ever lived without the marvels of unmanned flight. My point is: unmanned flight will likely affect your life in some way, whether you are a pilot, mechanic, aviation manager, or just someone interested in aviation. I encourage you to look for ways to help make unmanned aviation a positive influence on the aviation industry and not resist the inevitable with unfounded negativity. This does not mean that you have to “like” the idea of unmanned flight, but I would encourage that criticism at least be constructive.

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A vastly expanding civilian Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) market is leading to the day when UAVs must be allowed to operate freely in the National Airspace System (NAS). The main obstacle preventing this from happening is the distrust of the ability for a UAV to avoid collisions with manned aircraft. There has been a vast amount of effort put into researching UAV Detect Sense and Avoid (DSA) systems with the hope that an Equivalent Level of Safety (ELOS) can be achieved for unmanned compared to manned flight. The current debate is what type of DSA will provide the required level of safety to prevent increasing the hazard to manned aircraft operations.

There are many different types of DSA systems currently undergoing research, from visual cameras interpreted by humans to automatic detection systems incorporating lasers. ASTM International, an organization that develops industry consensus standards such as those that govern Light Sport Aircraft design, has released a standard (F2411-07) on the requirements for an Airborne DSA system that specifies the minimum capabilities of a DSA. However, this ASTM standard does not (and should not) mandate what type of system must be used.

The overriding question regarding what type of DSA will eventually be used is whether or not the pilot operating the vehicle should be “in the loop”. Can a UAV’s computer detect an aircraft and maneuver to avoid a collision automatically as effectively as a pilot on the ground could view a high resolution video screen and perform the same operation? There are many factors that must be considered before this question will be appropriately answered, such as pilot/computer response times and communication latency. However, a human has the ability to make decisions based on variables that may never have been identified as pertinent by a computer software engineer. Thus, a human interaction with the DSA system may not be the most “precise” option, but probably the most dynamic. Will we ever see 100% autonomous UAV operations in the NAS? Only time will tell.

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I like the idea of the taxi cab. When visiting large or unfamiliar cities, the taxi cab is my point-to-point machine of choice.  They are quick and convenient.  And besides that, they’ve provided some of the  most exhilarating rides I have taken - taxis in Abuja, Nigeria, and in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, come to mind specifically. You haven’t lived until you’ve ridden in a taxi in Abuja, and on a trip to Philly a few years ago, like a true NASCAR racer, our taxi driver locked in behind an ambulance with flashing lights and sirens, drafting to get us downtown from the airport like he was on the track at the Pocono 500. 

When most people think of business aviation, they visualize a nice eight to twelve passenger business jet with a luxurious interior of leather and fine wood.  They think of galleys stocked with prepared gourmet meals and good wine.  And, that is part of the industry, to be sure; but, it’s not all of the industry.

What about the 212 mph taxi cab?

Cirrus Design and their new generation aircraft – the SR-22 – has created a new market in business travel.  Research on the Air Charter Guide shows over 40 charter operators across the United States operating Cirrus aircraft in charter service.

Why does the single-engine aircraft work in air taxi service today when it did not work prior to Cirrus?  Perception and Reality.

Perception: Single-engine aircraft are (were) not safe because they only have one engine. What happens if the engine quits?

Reality: Cirrus overcame the perception with the reality of an on board parachute system as a last resort means to deal with engine failures and other emergencies. It has been tested, and it works.  

Perception: Charter service on single-engine aircraft is unreliable since the planes can fly only in clear weather during daylight hours.

Reality: Prior to Cirrus, the single engine piston engine powered aircraft was only certified to fly under Visual Flight Rules (VFR – clear weather) and in the day time. With advances in technology and redundancy in electrical systems, Cirrus was able to certify the aircraft with the FAA to fly charter flights in Instrument Flight Rules (IFR – in the clouds) conditions, and to fly at night. This allowed a reliability of scheduling the air taxi ride in advance, with less worry about what the weather was going to be like on the day of the trip. This was the major game changer!

The innovation of single-engine air taxi in both aircraft design and service offering is part of the new productive and efficient way to do business travel. It may not be as glamorous and comfy as the business jet, but it is very cost-efficient.

So, welcome to the age of the 212 mph taxi ride! It may not be as flashy as the jet, but it beats waiting for gate announcements.  Besides, it is a whole lot more fun and in no way scary like the taxi rides in Philly or Abuja.

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UAVs and the Future of Aviation: Crash and Burn or Taking Off to New Heights?

There has been a lot of discussion in the aviation industry recently regarding the imminent operation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), called Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UASs) by the FAA, in the National Airspace System (NAS) and their impact on the safety of manned aircraft operations. However, there has been little attention paid to the economic impact of UAVs on the aviation job market.

Some pilots are concerned that widespread use of UAVs will reduce the number of pilot positions that are available and do further damage to an already weak job market. There are also other considerations such as whether or not UAVs will be maintained by licensed A&P mechanics or a special UAV technician. If manned operations become unmanned, there is a popular belief that the aviation economy as a whole may be damaged.

In actuality, the fears of UAVs having a negative impact on the aviation industry are most likely unfounded. The FAA has stated that UASs are civil aircraft in accordance with 14 CFR §1.1 and are therefore required to be operated by pilots certificated under the requirements of FAR Part 61. In addition, the aircraft will also have to be maintained by FAA certified technicians. Since these regulations apply to UAVs in the same manner as manned aircraft, it is likely that demand for pilots and maintenance technicians will only increase with the introduction of UAVs into the NAS. Beyond the need for airmen, UAVs will open up new jobs for engineers, avionics technicians, flight test personnel, and communications experts. Also, many new types of aviation operations will be possible with the use of unmanned aircraft and such an expansion of aviation can only lead to a boost for the aviation industry.

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Every time someone posts something online the context of their content reveals an intent. Intentions have become transparent and discernment of intent is becoming the wisdom of crowds.

The aggregation of consumer conversations enabled by technology has fueled awareness of market methods and intents. Consumers have found influence and have begun to “opt out” of the old methods created by old market methods of intent to capture and sell.

Social technology has created a transparency of intent. Intent is a relational attribute that reveals motive. The “markets of conversations” are no longer motivated by old methods used by the markets over the last 40 years. Doc Searls says “The Intention Economy is built around more than transactions. Conversations matter. So do relationships. So do reputation, authority and respect. Those virtues, however, are earned by sellers (as well as buyers) and not just “branded” by sellers on the minds of buyers like the symbols of ranchers burned on the hides of cattle.”

A Brands Letter of Intent

A letter of intent or LOI is a document outlining an agreement between two or more parties before the agreement is finalized. Such agreements may be for employment, acquisitions, mergers, purchases of services or products. Agreements which aim to specify the intents of parties engaged in a relationship for specific purposes.

The purposes of a LOI may be:

• to clarify the key points of a complex or simple transaction for the convenience of the parties
• to declare officially that the parties are now engaged with an intent implied or specifically spelled out
• to offer safeguards for when the relationship collapses during an engagement with intent

A LOI may also be referred to as a memorandum of understanding (MOU), term sheet or discussion sheet. The different terms show different styles, but do not show any difference under law. Social letters of intent exist when and where buyers and sellers engage on-line through the exchange of information and later a transaction which has certain expectations of delivery.

Social Agreements Represent LOI’s

When people engage with other people or entire organizations on-line there is an implied social agreement represented within the communications. The social agreement may be in response to an inquiry, a comment on posted content or an intent to investigate or take action from an ad or marketing message. The social agreement may also simply be a response to a need or an exchange of communications centric to topical discussions.

Given the reach of social technology and the engagement of markets, buyers and sellers, the underlying social agreement is similar to the traditional letter of intent. While social agreements are not legal instruments the expectations of fulfillment by both parties remain the same as if they were legally agreements.

The very nature of social technology and the emerging dynamics are raising people’s expectation to fulfill implied intents contained in context with the content (communications). It is clear that traditional marketing and advertising methods are being rejected because the intent of such methods are not what buyers expect. Today’s buyers expect honesty, integrity, responsiveness, performance and respect for their time, attention and intentions.

Cluttering buyers time, attention and relevant intentions with irrelevant ads and slick marketing messages does not show respect. Treating buyers like cattle waiting to be herded does not show respect. The currency of communications represents the value of ones intent to fulfill or fail to fulfill the intent of a social agreement. Failure to fulfill a social agreement means the buyers currency, both in the form of money and communications, will not follow you rather both will be spent and shared elsewhere.

Social letters of intent are not created by or from the supplier rather from the buyer. To ignore or not fulfill these intents means you lose the buyers currency and that of their “friends”. That represents a return, or lack thereof, from this thing called social media.

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I don’t think this double bubble design is what Wilbur and Orville had in mind, but as aviation traffic doubles in the next 25 years, this aircraft may be just the thing for Mother Nature.

In October of 2008, NASA awarded research contracts to six US teams with the goal of producing more fuel-efficient, quieter and better performing subsonic passenger aircraft which could be on the market by 2035.  Team members from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics recently unveiled a radical new design that is just what NASA ordered.

Rather than a thin, cylindrical fuselage, the aircraft MIT designed for the N+3 Program (three generations beyond today’s airplanes) features a fuselage of two partially connected cylinders and engines mounted on the rear of the aircraft as opposed to today’s wing-mounted engines.  By throwing out traditional design patterns, the team designed an aircraft which would consume as much as 70% less fuel than passenger aircraft currently in service, while emitting up to 75% fewer nitrogen oxides.  The  aircraft design should allow it to take off from shorter runways, as well.  According to lead designer Mark Drela, the aircraft would fly about 10% slower than its counterparts today. However, the body design allows for faster enplaning and deplaning; so, while you might spend a little more time in the air, you will spend less time at the gate.  In total, you should spend about the same amount of time in the process. 

Sounds great, so when will you see one of these pulled up to the jetbridge?  Not anytime soon, says MIT.  This D-series design, which is meant to take the place of the Boeing 737 aircraft, creates engine stress issues that will have to be resolved long before the project moves to prototype stage.

The team also introduced an H-Series design meant to replace the Boeing 777.  The H-Series also features rear mounted engines and a radical commercial fuselage design.  This aircraft uses longer, thinner wings and a triangular shaped body that is something of a fuselage / wing hybrid.  This design feature improves aerodynamics and allows the aircraft to carry more passengers.

If NASA chooses either of the designs, then the MIT team will move on to the second phase of the project.  The funding provided in the second phase would allow the team to continue research into new propulsion technology and how it might be applied to this design.  The team says that even without moving into phase two, they hope to continue design research using their own facilities and partnering with aircraft manufacturers.

With models that are more Star Fleet than Pacific Fleet, the future of commercial passenger aircraft design is looking more exciting and more Earth friendly than ever before.

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We try to write about innovation on the Plane Conversations blog site as much as possible. Anytime I see or hear about a company or individual who is pushing new boundries in our industry I listen and try to understand what they are up to.  Without innovation in General Aviation, our industry will languish and not realize the potential that we know it can reach - the potential that those of us in it for the long haul dream about.

I say this every day when I talk to people about what we do. People who travel love to use private aircraft and the only barrier to more people using private aviation or general aviation as a form of travel is price. So, if we are innovating, then driving the price down for flying private aircraft to grow the market has to be the primary goal.

Jack Pelton, CEO of Cessna, has led his company through the toughest recession in modern aviation. Their backlog of aircraft sales dropped to half of the prerecession level. They laid of a large percentage of their workforce including 6000 in Wichita alone.

It seems that the bigger you get, the harder it is to innovate. I find that to be true even in our little aviation company. We get set in our ways and do thingsin a certain way today because we have always done them that way. The lesson learned is that none of us, no matter how large or small, can afford to stop innovating.

So why change? Why innovate?

Cessna has made more aircraft than any other manufacturer in the history of aviation. When you are number one, it is hard to think about innovation. I guess all it takes is a good recession and losing half your order book to get the creative juices flowing again! I believe that Cessna will breath new life into their design and manufacturing processes to make better aircraft that are more reliable and efficient and at a better price. They have to if they want to compete with the likes of Embraer and other rising manufcaturers of business and private aircraft. The market wants new lower cost solutions and someone is going to provide what the market wants. Maybe Cessna can do it.

Jack Pelton sums it up in this interview on CNN. Innovate or Die!

http://edition.cnn.com/video/?iref=allsearch#/video/us/2010/04/23/foreman.bua.cessna.cnn

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When we started our flight school, Wings of Eagles, ten years ago, we were looking for a new trainer that would be efficient, safe and fun to fly. We wanted to do something different and reach a different market of people interested in learning to fly by offering new aircraft with the latest technology.

At that time, most flight schools were using 20-year-old Cessna 152s and 172s as their primary trainers. I learned to fly in those aircraft and there’s nothing wrong with learning to fly in a 20 year old trainer; but, it is not the most inspiring sight.  When you are thinking about learning to fly, you’re not looking for an aircraft that has a worn down paint job, a ratty interior, and radios from a different era of electronics.  You’re looking for an aircraft that looks like the future, which is why we chose the Da-20 Katana because it represented just that – the future. When the Da-40 Diamond Star came out we were in line and bought one of the first ones made – serial number 42.

Through the last ten years, these aircraft have proven to be great trainers: so, we have kept Diamond Da-20s and Da-40s in the mix, even  as we have upgraded the fleet.

Like all general aviation aircraft manufacturers, Diamond has had a rough ride in the past two years, but they have hung in there, and now it looks like they are on the verge of some new, innovative aircraft that will keep them in the future game of private and general aviation. 

A post on Flight Global this past week written by Flight International’s Kate Sarsfield of Flight International says that Diamond Aircraft has secured an investor to help them complete the certification of the D-jet.

This is great news for the industry. There is room between the high performance piston aircraft (Cirrus) and the new light jets (Embraer Phenom and Cessna Mustang) for a single engine jet primarily focused at the market of owner-flown aircraft buyers.  

At a price of 1.9 million, which is roughly half of the Phenom 100, and nearly 1 million less than the TBM850, this aircraft would be positioned well in the market to sell.

Kate Sarsfield also mentions other innovations and product offerings that Diamond is working on:

Dries (CEO of Diamond) admitted at the show that Diamond has been forced to diversify its product line and widen its target market to “survive the economic downturn.” A number of projects are in the works, including: 

• Designing wing spar boxes for the Russian MC-21 airliner, which is set for service entry in 2017.
• Building a Mercedes-based V-6 turbo diesel engine for the DA50 DiamondStar piston single
• Designing and building a “future small aircraft” powered by twin turbo diesels. The six-seat variant will have twin 270hp (200kW) engines, while the eight-seat model will have two 400hp engines. Both aircraft will have fly-by-wire controls, an automatic landing system for use in case of pilot incapacitation and be available in pressurised and unpressurised versions.

• Developing two new V-8 turbo diesels – one with 350hp and the other with 550hp.
• Developing a light aircraft driven by a hybrid combination of a 55hp Wankel rotary engine and a 40-50kW electrical motor. Dries said an aircraft will make its debut at next year’s show.

Meanwhile, Diamond has European approval for its 170hp AE300 Austro engine powered DA40 piston single – now called the DA40NG.

Much of what is mentioned has to do with diesel engine technology for aviation. The diesel technology will eventually catch on in a big way for two reasons:

1. The supply of aviation gasoline is limited in most parts of the world and will probably not get better, but here is always an available supply of jet fuel and eventually a bio jet fuel will be on the market.
2. The diesel engine is more economical and eventually will be more reliable.

 So, hats off to Diamond for being forward-thinking and innovative.

 I look forward to seeing the D-jet and diesel variants of the Da-40 and Da-42 Twin star flying here in the US.

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