Plane Conversations

An industry in crisis is an industry ripe for transformation.

America’s air travel system is in crisis. In response to rising fuel prices, air-space congestion and industry losses during the recession, airlines have cut capacity and raised rates. These challenges follow on the heels of delays and hassles that have cost the nation almost $33 billion in the past year alone, according to a recent study commissioned by the FAA / DOT.

Some blame the problems on government regulations over airlines and the lack of modernized air traffic control infrastucture. Others see the problem as dysfunctional management of the airline system.

Could it be that “the system of air travel” is being re-engineered before our eyes and all the current problems are part of the process?

I remember when airline travel used to be a social experience. Today it is anything but social, with the majority of passengers frustrated by the experience and loss of productivity.  Yet air travel is necessary for both leisure and business purposes.

How big is air travel and its impact on the economy here in the US?

Research from the US Travel Association says:

1. About 42 percent of U.S. adults reported traveling by air for leisure trips.  The percentage of air travelers increases to 48 percent among U.S. adults who traveled for business purposes in the past year.
2. A study by the U.S. Travel Association revealed a deep frustration among air travelers that caused them to avoid an estimated 41 million trips over the past 12 months at a cost of more than $26 billion to the U.S. economy.
3. Business travel in the U.S. is responsible for $246 billion in spending and 2.3 million American jobs; $100 billion of this spending and 1 million American jobs are linked directly to meetings and events. For every dollar invested in business travel, businesses experience an average $12.50 in increased revenue and $3.80 in new profits.
4. The Internet was used by approximately 90 million American adults to plan travel during the past year with 76 percent of online travelers planning leisure trips online.

The Social Market of Travel Is Hot Every other day or two, you hear about a new travel app, a travel related company, or a mega travel player partnering, acquiring, or developing the next industry killer app. Consider some of the recent developments in the travel space over the last year:

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When we started our flight school, Wings of Eagles, ten years ago, we were looking for a new trainer that would be efficient, safe and fun to fly. We wanted to do something different and reach a different market of people interested in learning to fly by offering new aircraft with the latest technology.

At that time, most flight schools were using 20-year-old Cessna 152s and 172s as their primary trainers. I learned to fly in those aircraft and there’s nothing wrong with learning to fly in a 20 year old trainer; but, it is not the most inspiring sight.  When you are thinking about learning to fly, you’re not looking for an aircraft that has a worn down paint job, a ratty interior, and radios from a different era of electronics.  You’re looking for an aircraft that looks like the future, which is why we chose the Da-20 Katana because it represented just that – the future. When the Da-40 Diamond Star came out we were in line and bought one of the first ones made – serial number 42.

Through the last ten years, these aircraft have proven to be great trainers: so, we have kept Diamond Da-20s and Da-40s in the mix, even  as we have upgraded the fleet.

Like all general aviation aircraft manufacturers, Diamond has had a rough ride in the past two years, but they have hung in there, and now it looks like they are on the verge of some new, innovative aircraft that will keep them in the future game of private and general aviation. 

A post on Flight Global this past week written by Flight International’s Kate Sarsfield of Flight International says that Diamond Aircraft has secured an investor to help them complete the certification of the D-jet.

This is great news for the industry. There is room between the high performance piston aircraft (Cirrus) and the new light jets (Embraer Phenom and Cessna Mustang) for a single engine jet primarily focused at the market of owner-flown aircraft buyers.  

At a price of 1.9 million, which is roughly half of the Phenom 100, and nearly 1 million less than the TBM850, this aircraft would be positioned well in the market to sell.

Kate Sarsfield also mentions other innovations and product offerings that Diamond is working on:

Dries (CEO of Diamond) admitted at the show that Diamond has been forced to diversify its product line and widen its target market to “survive the economic downturn.” A number of projects are in the works, including: 

• Designing wing spar boxes for the Russian MC-21 airliner, which is set for service entry in 2017.
• Building a Mercedes-based V-6 turbo diesel engine for the DA50 DiamondStar piston single
• Designing and building a “future small aircraft” powered by twin turbo diesels. The six-seat variant will have twin 270hp (200kW) engines, while the eight-seat model will have two 400hp engines. Both aircraft will have fly-by-wire controls, an automatic landing system for use in case of pilot incapacitation and be available in pressurised and unpressurised versions.

• Developing two new V-8 turbo diesels – one with 350hp and the other with 550hp.
• Developing a light aircraft driven by a hybrid combination of a 55hp Wankel rotary engine and a 40-50kW electrical motor. Dries said an aircraft will make its debut at next year’s show.

Meanwhile, Diamond has European approval for its 170hp AE300 Austro engine powered DA40 piston single – now called the DA40NG.

Much of what is mentioned has to do with diesel engine technology for aviation. The diesel technology will eventually catch on in a big way for two reasons:

1. The supply of aviation gasoline is limited in most parts of the world and will probably not get better, but here is always an available supply of jet fuel and eventually a bio jet fuel will be on the market.
2. The diesel engine is more economical and eventually will be more reliable.

 So, hats off to Diamond for being forward-thinking and innovative.

 I look forward to seeing the D-jet and diesel variants of the Da-40 and Da-42 Twin star flying here in the US.

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The solution to any problem is entirely dependent on how the problem is defined. Likewise, redefining the problem, exposes huge opportunities for new solutions.

In Fact, a great deal of innovation arises not from a clever solution, but from a clever new definition of a problem.

For example, “build a better mouse trap” has entirely different outcome when one simply changes the definition of the word “trap”.

Manufacturing Problems.

Commercial Air Transportation, for example, was once lauded as a “Time Machine” because airplanes could carry a person into “a future”  that was otherwise impossible to emerge in, or to a “past” that would never have been witnessed by any other means.

However, solving this problem created many more problems such as runways, infrastructure, car parking, noise, oxygen, crashing, etc.  Diligently, we went about solving those problems as well.  Unfortunately, solving each of those problems created a host of new problems. Today we’re down to solving the 3.0 ounce of toothpaste rule and the flammable underwear problem.

At some point we need to ask if we are manufacturing problems with every new solution.  At what point is innovation taking us backwards? How prevalent is this human trait and does it have anything to do with the financial deficit?

Redefine the Problem

One of the greatest opportunities of Social Media (which is rarely cited by the experts) is the opportunity to redefine problems in the context of social media.  Using our airline example, we know that  commercial aviation arose from WWII as a response for bringing troops to static battle fields with such dynamic machines as the DC3. This worked great after the war too!

Today we still treat people as static and airplanes as dynamic.  Suppose we were to redefine the problem so that people are dynamic and the airplane is static?

Think about it, people go about their life with work, family, and friends.  Then they hop into a long aluminum tube, tie themselves down and sit there doing nothing.  After a few hours, they emerge from the tube to go about their life, work, family, and friends. The aluminum tube is static, not dynamic – it’s a time machine, remember?

The opportunity, therefore, is for people to self-aggregate using social media around locations, schedules, and events related to life, work, family, and friends.   The market could then supply the correct size aluminum tube to meet the need of the community. After all, wouldn’t it be easier to move one airplane to meet the ‘market of many’ rather than trying to move the ‘market of many’ to meet one airplane?

This may sound trivial now, but don’t underestimate the creativity of social entrepreneurs to build a better problem to solve.

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Aviation supports a role in society that is analogous to the Internet itself. While the hard work gets done at the points on the ground, Aviation provides the diversity of ideas that can congregate.

Sure, Twitter, Facebook, and Linked in are great for broadcasting across the globe, but nothing can happen until the rubber meets the tarmac. Emerging trends in the Last Mile of Social Media portend opportunities for Private Aviation.

The following video describes how the components of the next economic paradigm must act locally, but share globally. For anyone wondering what to do next or where the great opportunities are, think about building out the Last mile of Social Media.

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