Plane Conversations

A visualization of Human Edits to Wikipedia where each color represents a different page

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal January 30, 2012 online edition: The Coming Tech-led Boom, identifies three technologies that will have as profound an impact on the world as electrification, telephony, and the dawn of the automobile age.

Even as we all see these technologies approaching, much like our 20th century contemporaries, most people cannot even begin to grasp the implications.  One thing is certain, industries that are unable to adapt, will not survive in their current state.

Social Flights is Flying into the next century with eyes wide open

From Wall Street Journal:

In January 2012, we sit again on the cusp of three grand technological transformations with the potential to rival that of the past century. All find their epicenters in America: big data, smart manufacturing and the wireless revolution.

Big Data and Wireless Technology

Big Data is at the core of some of what have become the most disruptive innovations of our time. Processing power, data storage, and data transmission are almost free.  The handheld device has more computing power than the supercomputers the 1970s.  The internet is moving into the cloud and away from the so called desk-top. All data is converging to a single place where it can be accessed and combined in countless ways.  Every second of every day creates an astonishing amount of empirical data that creates an unimaginable diversity of information and new knowledge.

At thge top of the food chain is Social media creating data – data does not create social media.  Data is made by people; data does not make people. People create, data does not, etc.  Likewise for most services in the next century; people will determine where airplanes fly – airplanes will no longer determine where people will can go.

A hub airport does little more than sort people and planes.  At Social Flights we use data to sort people and planes.  What if we could replace infrastructure with data? All this would take is for communities to “perform a simple calculation” among themselves.  Nothing is stopping this from happening today.  

From Wall Street Journal

The implications of the radical collapse in the cost of wireless connectivity are as big as those following the dawn of telegraphy/telephony. Coupled with the cloud, the wireless world provides cheap connectivity, information and processing power to nearly everyone, everywhere. This introduces both rapid change [and great opportunity].

Many people don’t understand how this could happen but Social Flights sees the possibility everyday, for example:  A handheld device will become the hub, the scheduling agent, the point of purchase, and the boarding pass – all with a swipe across the “reality augmented” sky.  The data already exists that can determine how many people from any point on earth intend to travel to any other point on earth and when.  Putting these data sets together creates a remarkably different landscape for air travel … and commerce in general.

Social Flights in new.  Social Flights is visionary – anyone who joins us on this voyage will be joining a revolution much greater than simply a ride sharing service. The point should be crystal clear - Social media creates data, data does not create social media.

Understand this, and you will understand Social Flights.   

“Systems Thinking” is important in aviation.  No single event acts alone from complex air traffic control to complex mechanical aircraft and complex weather systems. Economics is a complex system and markets are complex systems, human behavior is displayed in complex social systems.  This is the way that Social Flights approaches business – we are a ride sharing “system” for private jets

It is not surprising then that Google identifies 5 stages of the consumer travel system.

The following is from Trent via Statistics and Research Studies for Travel, Tourism & Lodging:

More than 87% of travelers expect to take the same or more number of personal or business trips in 2011 versus years past. This outlook is positive, and with the rise of mobile, social and video behaviors, we are now seeing seeing travelers move through five key stages of travel. Here are some insights within each stage:

Dreaming: 68% of business travelers watch travel-related online videos. Among them, 68% are thinking about a trip.

Planning: The average traveler visits ~22 travel related sites during 9.5 research sessions prior to booking.  85% of leisure travelers consider the internet their main source of travel planning.

Booking: 37% of leisure travelers report that the internet prompted them to book, up from 28% two years ago.  53% of travelers plan to increase comparison shopping this year.

Experiencing: 70% of business travelers check into their flights/hotel with their mobile device. Almost 1 in 4 hotel queries come from a mobile phone.  Over 50% of travelers use mobile phone or device for travel-related information.

Sharing: About 1 in 3 business travelers have posted reviews online of places they’ve been.

At Social Flights we have argued that there is a great need for travel related information to be made available for private aircraft and charter jet inventory.  As such, we are developing tools such as our “Instant Quote” feature, and inventory listings to supplement travel information on line. Here’s why:

62% of personal travelers use search engines as the number one source for travel information. 

51% of business travelers use mobile devices to get travel information, more than double the rate of two years ago. 

46% of personal travelers are watching travel-related videos, versus 36% two years ago. 

The quantity and the quality of information that a travel company can provide is directly proportional to the relevance in the 5 stages of consumer travel activity.  The effort is paying off.

Social Flights will soon announce several deals with municipalities that are tired of being stranded by airlines

Social Flights will annouce a deal with a major vacation spot that is tired of getting gouged by brokers

Social Flights Instant Quote feature continues to disrupt the “secret handshake” of the charter jet industry

Social Flights will soon announce major deals at world class events where we shuttle people to the doorstep of the action

Social Flights is opening travel circles across the US for people to share their experiences and plan their adventures

At Social Flights, we are aviators, we are system thinkers, we are fully aware and intentional about the system that we are building.  We thank all those who are helping, from our pilots to our partners to our investors and to our followers.  Together we are developing a Social Flying System

There is a war brewing within the online travel agency space over Google’s recent move with Google Flights and Google Hotels.

Google began positioning its new flight-finding feature at the top of general search results for airline booking information earlier this month. And its new competitors in the $110 billion online travel industry aren’t happy about the search giant crashing the party, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report.

Chasing The Market To The Bottom

Travel is hot for 2012 and beyond.  An increasing number of people say they’ll do more leisure traveling in the coming year, and even more say they’ll fly if they can find good deals in 2012. Good deals are going to be hard to find. The airlines attempted to raise prices 22 times in 2011 (and nine of those attempts were successful).

Business travel spend is expected to have grown 6.9% in 2011 compared to 2010, hitting $250.2 billion.  The forecast for 2012 is 4.3% growth in business travel spend for 2012 (or $260.9 billion).

While revenue growth in the travel sector looks promising the user experience continues to decline. Flying today is like traveling by bus with few frills and even fewer fun times.  Consider some of the recent headlines:

1. Airline Technology Leading to Customer Alienation
2. Airlines Score Lowest In Customer Satisfaction
3. 92% of Executive Unhappy With Business Travel Experiences
4. Airline Delays, Cancellations and Complaints Rise

I could go on with an endless list but by now the picture should be obvious. Current market dynamics within air travel services is propelling a race to the bottom and Google knows this.  In other words air travel suppliers have boxed themselves into competing on price and thus air travel services have become a commodity. The meaning of the term commodity is used to describe a service for which there is demand, but which is supplied without qualitative differentiation across a market.

Google knows that search has the greatest influence over consumer choices for travel services. 93% of people who seek information on travel services use search. Consumers seek ratings and reviews, news articles, word of mouth and blog post which in the end influences their decisions. When there is little differential in a market then price becomes the initial decision factor followed by “social influences”, i.e. quality of the experience.

As a result, the present online travel bazaar is very competitive and the margins are shrinking . The  tight competition led the market to compete on price rather than experience. Google recognizes this and simply stepped in and made the shopping experience better. Google doesn’t care about the price of air service they care about providing the price to consumers seamlessly.

As fortunes are made by leveraging technology to become ever more efficient, there is yet far greater wealth to be had by unleashing the discovery of new experiences and creation of new opportunities. That is exactly why we created Social Flights. We are changing the direction of the race to the top.

Click on pen to

There is a war brewing within the on-line travel agency space over Google’s recent move with Google Flights and Google Hotels.

Google began positioning its new flight-finding feature at the top of general search results for airline booking information earlier this month. And its new competitors in the $110 billion online travel industry aren’t happy about the search giant crashing the party, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report.

Chasing The Market To The Bottom

Travel is hot for 2012 and beyond.  An increasing number of people say they’ll do more leisure traveling in the coming year, and even more say they’ll fly if they can find good deals in 2012. Good deals are going to be hard to find. The airlines attempted to raise prices 22 times in 2011 (and nine of those attempts were successful).

Business travel spend is expected to have grown 6.9% in 2011 compared to 2010, hitting $250.2 billion.  The forecast for 2012 is 4.3% growth in business travel spend for 2012 (or $260.9 billion).

While revenue growth in the travel sector looks promising the user experience continues to decline. Flying today is like traveling by bus with few frills and even fewer fun times.  Consider some of the recent headlines:

1. Airline Technology Leading to Customer Alienation
2. Airlines Score Lowest In Customer Satisfaction
3. 92% of Executive Unhappy With Business Travel Experiences

I could go on with an endless list but by now the picture should be obvious. Current market dynamics within air travel services is propelling a race to the bottom and Google knows this.  In other words air travel suppliers have boxed themselves into competing on price and thus air travel services have become a commodity. The meaning of the term commodity is used to describe a service for which there is demand, but which is supplied without qualitative differentiation across a market.

Google knows that search has the greatest influence over consumer choices for travel services. 93% of people who seek information on travel services use search. Consumers seek ratings and reviews, news articles, word of mouth and blog post which in the end influences their decisions. When there is little differential in a market then price becomes the initial decision factor followed by “social influences”, i.e. quality of the experience.

As a result, the present online travel bazaar is very competitive and the margins are shrinking . The  tight competition led the market to compete on price rather than experience. Google recognizes this and simply stepped in and made the shopping experience better. Google doesn’t care about the price of air service they care about providing the price to consumers seamlessly.

As fortunes are made by leveraging technology to become ever more efficient, there is yet far greater wealth to be had by unleashing the discovery of new experiences and creation of new opportunities. That is exactly why we created Social Flights.

Few people take into account the social value of air transportation.  There are very few studies that can measure the impact on a community when they are immobilized due to lack of a service that had previously been available. There is no true economic category to describe such loss except as a tax on travel.

A regressive tax is taxation that takes a larger percentage from low-income people than from high-income people. A regressive tax is generally a tax that is applied uniformly. This means that it hits lower-income individuals harder. Social Flights can restore this value with a regionalized public jet charter system.

Now we can add “Travel” to the list

Sales taxes that apply to essentials are generally considered to be regressive as well because expenses for food, clothing and shelter tend to make up a higher percentage of a lower income consumer’s overall budget. In this case, even though the tax may be uniform (such as 7% sales tax), lower income consumers are more affected by it because they are less able to afford it.

<via American Eagle to park planes, reduce service – Dallas Business Journal>

The small city gets the regressive travel tax

American Eagle announced that they would reduce frequency in a few select markets, they would discontinued seasonal service from D/FW to Augusta, Ga. Eagle would also discontinued service from Chicago to Tri-Cities, Tenn as well as discontinued service between Miami and Savanna, Ga., and Miami and Fort Myers, Florida.  American Eagle would also hasten the cancellation of Los Angeles-Boise, Chicago-Calgary and D/FW-Fayetteville, N.C., service from Feb. 9 to Jan. 31.

So how many people would these reduction in service decisions impact? If we just add up the populations of the smaller metropolitan area in each city pair, we can estimate economic loss of opportunity under the assumption that the larger city would have alternate options. Fair enough?

Augusta, GA: 556,877

Tri Cities, TN:  500,538

Savanna, GA: 347,611

Ft Meyers, Fl: 618,754

Boise, Id: 616,500

Calgary: 1,230,248

Fayetteville, NC:  366,383

The Creeping Costs

The total is at least 4 million who will lose one more degree of economic freedom.  4 million people will pay a regressive tax denominated in time, money, and dignity in some form or another for the benefit of stockholders in American Eagle. 4 million people will lose the economic benefit of travelers from large cities.

On closer inspection, with the exception of Calgary and Boise, all of these cities are well within 1000 miles of each other.  Each of these cities is well within 1000 miles of cities just as large as those that American Eagle is diminishing service.

While a hub and spoke model may break down economically, a regionalization strategy may work quite well.  It has been proven that people are willing to pay a premium for direct service (otherwise the airlines would not be dropping less profitable indirect service).  It is also obvious that people place a premium on their time and hassle as demonstrated by trends in online shopping, communication, and social organization.

These ingredients simple add up to a regionalization air transportation route structure enabled by online social organization tools such as Social Flights where community airlines can form around community priorities.  Social Flights can restore this value with a regionalized public jet charter system.

Over the years we have seen more and more travel aggregators come into the online marketplace. Now you can go to dozens of different websites to find the lowest possible price for your next trip. As an industry, we have subsequently seen prices going lower as the airlines fight to the bottom to fight for market share. This does not drive down the cost of operation for flying the aircraft, it just lowers the consumer perception of what travel is worth.

(via http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/11/29/prweb8985424.DTL) Superfly, a technology startup at the forefront of travel innovation, today announced its new smart flight search engine. Superfly’s engine is a unique online platform that personalizes flight search by adding an individual’s data — frequent flyer miles, elite statuses, rewards programs and individual preferences — into the decision-making process of choosing a flight. For the first time, travelers can fully take advantage of their frequent flyer miles and rewards programs when booking travel online.

“Today’s mainstream flight search websites completely ignore the impact of consumer data,” said Jonathan Meiri, CEO of Superfly. “This is a defining issue for the future of online travel services. Superfly is a secure tool that not only has access to all the flights in the world, it also combines that information with personal travel preferences in order to help consumers figure out which flight is right for them.”

Google’s recent acquisition of ITA Software has marked the dawn of a new age in online travel. Many industry players are now using the same travel data, essentially turning flight search into a commodity. This will most likely unleash a wave of innovation as incumbents look to differentiate their services.

“Superfly is an incredible tool that will bring great value to travelers, particularly frequent flyers,” said Kenneth Esterow, an advisor of Superfly and former CEO of GTA by Travelport. “It is particularly useful to heavy users and corporate travelers.”

Superfly enables consumers to maximize the value of their miles and make better travel decisions. Rather than focusing solely on presenting the cheapest flight, Superfly helps individual consumers identify the options with the greatest personal value. Travelers can use Superfly’s personal travel insights to better manage their rewards programs and cash-in on the opportunities they present.

When all you focus on when you are looking for a service is price, everyone will lose. Value is a much more sustainable model and can lead to more growth and innovation. All of us here at Social Flights support the efforts of companies like Superfly and look forward to leading the charge with them into an innovative and prosperous age of travel.

This is déjà vu all over again.  By now I would have thought our Congress would have come up with a long term funding authorization for a very critical part of our nation’s infrastructure.  All of us under the big umbrella of aviation (airlines and GA) don’t agree all of the time but for once we all agree to the necessity of funding the FAA and the development of airports and Next Gen air traffic control systems.  We have even accepted the idea that fuel taxes will go up to help fund these initiatives.

ATW online reports that our Congress just passed the 20^th short term extension for funding the FAA.  That’s right, 20 extensions.  If I ran my business finances like that I would have been fired a long time ago.  Somehow our nation’s lawmakers can’t agree to get anything done about this yet no one seems to hold them accountable.

Quoting from the article “FAA Administrator Randy Babbitt, Airports Council International-North America and airport directors around the US have been saying for some time that uncertainty over FAA funding, particularly the Airport Improvement Program that helps finance expansion programs, is causing disruptions to airport construction projects (ATW’s Airports Today, Oct. 5, 2010). “For over three-and-a-half years we’ve been operating on extensions,” Babbitt noted during a recent speech. “It’s been very difficult to run an agency on extensions … We need to restore long-term stability to funding.”

In addition to the disruption of airport construction projects and the stall in developing Next Gen, the FAA has basically shut down the certification of new Airlines and Charter operators. So how do we create any new jobs in our industry if startups can’t start? Those of us already flying are also having trouble getting anything done with an agency that doesn’t know where their next dollar is coming from.

The Democratic controlled Senate and the Republican controlled House can’t seem to figure this out. But this goes back to before the Republicans got control of the house. So it seems that doing nothing about an important issue is the way it goes these days in Washington DC.

Click on pen to

An industry in crisis is an industry ripe for transformation.

America’s air travel system is in crisis. In response to rising fuel prices, air-space congestion and industry losses during the recession, airlines have cut capacity and raised rates. These challenges follow on the heels of delays and hassles that have cost the nation almost $33 billion in the past year alone, according to a recent study commissioned by the FAA / DOT.

Some blame the problems on government regulations over airlines and the lack of modernized air traffic control infrastucture. Others see the problem as dysfunctional management of the airline system.

Could it be that “the system of air travel” is being re-engineered before our eyes and all the current problems are part of the process?

I remember when airline travel used to be a social experience. Today it is anything but social, with the majority of passengers frustrated by the experience and loss of productivity.  Yet air travel is necessary for both leisure and business purposes.

How big is air travel and its impact on the economy here in the US?

Research from the US Travel Association says:

1. About 42 percent of U.S. adults reported traveling by air for leisure trips.  The percentage of air travelers increases to 48 percent among U.S. adults who traveled for business purposes in the past year.
2. A study by the U.S. Travel Association revealed a deep frustration among air travelers that caused them to avoid an estimated 41 million trips over the past 12 months at a cost of more than $26 billion to the U.S. economy.
3. Business travel in the U.S. is responsible for $246 billion in spending and 2.3 million American jobs; $100 billion of this spending and 1 million American jobs are linked directly to meetings and events. For every dollar invested in business travel, businesses experience an average $12.50 in increased revenue and $3.80 in new profits.
4. The Internet was used by approximately 90 million American adults to plan travel during the past year with 76 percent of online travelers planning leisure trips online.

The Social Market of Travel Is Hot Every other day or two, you hear about a new travel app, a travel related company, or a mega travel player partnering, acquiring, or developing the next industry killer app. Consider some of the recent developments in the travel space over the last year:

Click on pen to

An article in CAIXIN Online  states that China is opening up a low altitude segment (less than 1000 meters) of its airspace for General Aviation. This may seem like small news since you can’t do much with business aircraft below 3000 feet, but it is really the beginning of a change that will have a major impact on the growth of General Aviation in China.

A friend of ours in China followed on with an email yesterday that said “Beijing  Lanzhou and another 3 cities have opened the low altitude airspace for policy trial yesterday”.

Wichita is sitting around waiting on the rebound in the US and World Business Aviation market and the opportunity is about to be unleashed in the largest country in the world. Maybe a little more attention should be focused on the largest market opportunity for Business and General aviation for the next 20 years?

Here are some interesting excerpts from this article about the potential in China:

According to a research report from the State Council, China’s general aviation sector is at an “initial stage of quick growth.” The report expects China’s general aviation aircrafts to increase to up to 100,000 units. Currently, only 1,000 general aviation aircrafts are operated in China, compared with more than 200,000 in the United States

In case anyone missed that: “units” mean “aircraft” and the numbers were growing from 1,000 to 100,000.

According to the report, as the world’s largest aviation market, the U.S. has seen its general aviation industry create more than US$ 102 billion in value every year, accounting for more than one percent of the country’s GDP. Liu Ping, chief editor of the industry journal China Civil Aviation said that the effective access to low altitude airspace will create 100 million yuan in growth within the general aviation industry as well as large number of job opportunities.

China’s government seems to understand the impact that aviation would have on economic growth by viewing the impact of General Aviation in the US. I think maybe they get it more than the politicians in Washington DC. A growing General Aviation market means new and well paying  jobs.

One of the limiting factors for China opening up airspace will be overcome if they can implement a satellite based air traffic control system. By doing so they would leap ahead of the US who is using 1960’s technology to control air traffic flow through ground based radar. Presently China is working with limited air traffic control capacity and using systems that are also outdated and restrict traffic flow in major hub airports.  

The question is: How long will it take for China to address the issues that really open up airspace for practical use of business aircraft? Can they open up the airways for real air traffic flow as they have done on the ground with the massive road building projects?  

When they do address these issues the sky will be the limit.

Click on pen to

In an article in The Street online magazine titled “Why US Airlines pay more to finance jets” an interesting issue is raised about how the US Export Import Bank might be giving unfair advantage to the strongest of competitors to the US major air carriers.

I am a proponent of the US Export Import Bank (Ex-Im) as it promotes US exports through the financing of major capital purchases manufactured in the US. The assumption, or at least my assumption, is that this financing would be offered to companies in other countries who might not be able to obtain financing in their own country and thus not be able to make the purchase.

Under this assumption US industry wins with more jobs and import dollars.  

ExIm has been used to facilitate sales for the US aircraft manufacturing industry and especially Boeing. What would happen if Ex-Im did not exist to serve this purpose? I am not sure anyone could answer that question and I would bet that Boeing does not want to test the theory of no Ex-Im bank help. 

What is surprising about this article, and the information is conveys, is that the US is offering favorable terms to airlines who would have access to capital from their own financial markets.

These same foreign airlines are also competing heavily with the US mainline carriers like Delta on international routes. Delta and the ATA are crying foul ball.  

With a lower capital cost structure we are indeed giving the carriers like Emirates Airline a competitive advantage.

I don’t think this was the original intent of Ex-Im, which seems to have twisted the original purpose to help out Boeing.

Boeing needs to sell aircraft in a world market and by doing so they create a lot of high paying jobs and import dollars to the US economy.

Delta and other large US carriers need to compete in the international airline market with as level a playing field as possible.

This issue pits Boeing against the major US air carriers, some of their best customers.

Quoting from the article:

“The airline beneficiaries from the financing include nine of the ten most profitable airlines based outside of the U.S., France, Germany and the United Kingdom, May said. Among them: Air Canada, Air New Zealand, Cathay Pacific, Emirates, Japan Airlines, Singapore Airlines and WestJet. They all “compete with U.S. airlines for U.S. passenger traffic,” May said. WestJet, founded in 1996, has received nearly $1.7 billion in Ex-Im Bank financing since fiscal 2002 — and has been able to take traffic from U.S. airlines as a result, he said. ”  

I wonder if Boeing’s major competitor EADS Airbus is able to offer similar government  backed financing terms as Boeing can offer through Ex-Im.

If so, then Boeing would be put to a disadvantage in selling its product to the world’s airlines without Ex-Im.

In a global economy working through these issues is complicated. Boeing and EADS Airbus are multinational companies with the makeup of their aircraft coming from worldwide suppliers, but at the end of the day Boeing is still made in America and Airbus is made in Europe.

The issue becomes political with the “Aircraft Sector Understanding” which codifies aircraft financing standards between the 33 countries that make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.  What is your take on this?

Click on pen to